Current and future burden of female breast cancer in the Middle East and North Africa region using estimates from GLOBOCAN 2022

Abstract

Breast cancer is the most diagnosed female cancer and the most common cause of cancer death in women in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. In this study, we aimed to describe the current patterns of breast cancer among women in the MENA region and estimate the burden for the year 2050. We used the estimates of the breast cancer incidence and mortality from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database and predicted the burden of breast cancer in 2050 according to different scenarios. With 118,200 new breast cancer cases and 41,000 deaths, breast cancer contributed to 25% of cancer incidence and almost 20% of cancer mortality among women in MENA. The highest incidence rates were in Algeria and Iraq (≥60/100,000) and the lowest rates in Saudi Arabia and Yemen (<30/100,000). The highest mortality rates were in Iraq, Syrian Arab Republic, Algeria, and Sudan (>20/100,000), and the lowest in Saudi Arabia (7.6/100,000). While the incidence rates were low compared to other world regions, the mortality rates (16.9/100,000) were higher than in any other world region except Sub-Saharan Africa. The incidence rates for women <50 years in MENA were 5.5 times lower than in women aged ≥50 years, and lower than for women <50 years in Western countries. By 2050, the burden of breast cancer is estimated to increase to 219,000 new cases and to 88,900 deaths (86% and 117%, respectively). Scaling up cancer control to curb the rising burden alongside improved surveillance is vital to develop targeted interventions and improving outcomes.

Keywords: Middle East and North Africa; breast cancer; burden; incidence; mortality.