Global burden of bacterial skin diseases from 1990 to 2045: an analysis based on global burden disease data

Abstract

Bacterial skin diseases are a category of inflammatory skin conditions caused by bacterial infections, which impose a significant global disease burden. However, they have not been well assessed or predicted on a global scale. It is necessary to update the estimates and forecast future trends of the global burden of bacterial skin diseases to evaluate the impact of past healthcare policies and to provide guidance and information for new national and international healthcare strategies. We aimed to describe the burden and trend of bacterial skin diseases and to predict the burden up to 2045. To achieve this, we employed a cross-sectional analysis based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, utilizing advanced statistical models to quantify trends and forecast future burdens. Data on incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of bacterial skin diseases were obtained from Global Burden of Disease 2021. We used average annual percent change (AAPC) by Joinpoint Regression to quantify the temporal trends. We conducted decomposition analysis to understand the contribution of aging, epidemiological changes, and population growth. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to predict burden up to 2045. Global incidence rate of bacterial skin diseases increased from 8,988.74 per 100,000 in 1990 to 10,823.88 per 100,000, with AAPC of 0.62% (0.61 ~ 0.63%). The highest incidence rate was in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) region and population aged < 35. The DALYs rate increased from 20.82 per 100,000 in 1990 to 25.45 per 100,000 in 2021, with AAPC of -0.11% (-0.34 ~ 0.13%). The highest increase of DALYs was in high SDI region and population aged > 85. Among the three evaluated factors of decomposition analysis, the major drivers of incident case rise were population growth, followed by epidemiological changes; the major drivers of DALYs case rise were population growth, followed by aging. The number of incidence cases has increased since 1990, reaching nearly 90 million in 2021 and expected to hit 1.2 billion in 2045. The incidence rate has also risen. Meanwhile, DALYs showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2005, peaking at 32/100,000, then a downward trend. Our findings align with our initial objectives, demonstrating a significant increase in the global incidence of bacterial skin diseases and highlighting the need for targeted prevention and treatment strategies. The variation in burden across different regions and age groups underscores the importance of tailored public health interventions. Predictive models suggest a continued rise in incidence rates and incident cases through 2045, emphasizing the urgency for action. This study provides a foundation for future research and policy development aimed at reducing the burden of bacterial skin diseases worldwide.

Keywords: Bacterial skin infections; Forecast; Global disease burden; Public health; Socio-demographic index.