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. 2025 Jan 3:14:1511530.
doi: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1511530. eCollection 2024.

The trends of lung cancer burden in BRICS from 1990 to 2021 and its projection to 2035

Yifan Wang  1 , Jingwen Zhu  2 , Shaoqiang Wang  3 , Jihong Zhou  1
Affiliations

The trends of lung cancer burden in BRICS from 1990 to 2021 and its projection to 2035

Yifan Wang et al. Front Oncol. .

Abstract

Background: Lung cancer has become the malignant tumor with the highest morbidity and mortality in the world. This study aims to analyze the burden of lung cancer and risk factors associated with lung cancer in the BRICS from 1990-2021 and to project the burden of lung cancer in the BRICS from 2021-2035.

Methods: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database was searched to collect the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors of lung cancer in the BRICS. Trends in lung cancer burden from 1990-2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analyses were performed using R4.4.1 to project the disease burden of lung cancer from 2021-2035.

Results: AAPC(average annual percentage change) and EAPC(estimated average percentage change) of ASIR(age-standardized incidence), ASPR(age-standardized prevalence), ASMR(age-standardized mortality), and ASDR(age-standardized disability-adjusted life year) for lung cancer in Brazil, Russia, and Ethiopia 1990-2021 were less than 0. Egypt's AAPC and EAPC for ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR were all greater than 0 for 1990-2021, and China's ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR were all at the top of the BRICS in 2021. According to BAPC projection Brazil, Iran, Russia, and South Africa will have a decreasing trend in ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR from 2021-2035. Egypt will have an increasing trend in ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR from 2021-2035. With the exception of Ethiopia, the top tier level 1 and level 2 risk factors in the rest of the BRICS were behavioral factors and smoking factors, respectively.

Conclusion: The BRICS still have a heavy burden of lung cancer, and there are significant differences in the burden of lung cancer among the BRICS. At the same time, many BRICS lung cancer prevention and control measures are worth learning from other developing countries.

Keywords: BRICS; GBD database; burden of disease; lung cancer; risk factors.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be constructed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Burden of disease for lung cancer in 204 countries and territories in 2021. (A) ASIR; (B) ASPR; (C) ASMR; (D) ASDR.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Time trend of ASIR in lung cancer in BRICS from 1990 to 2021. The blue line and its surrounding area represent the projection curves and uncertainty intervals for males; The green line and its surrounding area represent the projection curves and uncertainty intervals for females; The red line and its surrounding area represent the projection curves and uncertainty intervals for both sexes in total.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Time trend of ASPR in lung cancer in BRICS from 1990 to 2021. The blue line and its surrounding area represent the projection curves and uncertainty intervals for males; The green line and its surrounding area represent the projection curves and uncertainty intervals for females; The red line and its its surrounding area represent the projection curves and uncertainty intervals for both sexes in total.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Time trend of ASMR in lung cancer in BRICS from 1990 to 2021. The blue line and its surrounding area represent the projection curves and confidence intervals for males; The green line and its surrounding area represent the projection curves and uncertainty intervals for females; The red line and its surrounding area represent the projection curves and uncertainty intervals for both sexes in total.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Time trend of ASDR in lung cancer in BRICS from 1990 to 2021. The blue line and its surrounding area represent the projection curves and confidence intervals for males; The green line and its surrounding area represent the projection curves and uncertainty intervals for females; The red line and its surrounding area represent the projection curves and uncertainty intervals for both sexes in total.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Time trend of the proportion of level 1 risk factors for lung cancer in BRICS from 1990 to 2021. (A) Proportion of deaths; (B) Proportion of DALYs.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Time trend of the proportion of level 1 risk factors for lung cancer in BRICS from 1990 to 2021. (A) Proportion of deaths; (B) Proportions of DALYs.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Projection of lung cancer ASIR, ASMR, ASMR, and ASDR trends in BRICS from 2021 to 2035. The blue area represents 95% UI. (A) China; (B) Ethiopia.
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