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. 2025 Jan 15;6(1):6.
doi: 10.3390/neurosci6010006.

Trends and Disparities in Parkinson's Disease Mortality in the United States with Predictions Using Machine Learning

Henry Weresh  1 , Kallin Hermann  1 , Ali Al-Salahat  2 , Amna Noor  3 , Taylor Billion  1 , Yu-Ting Chen  2 , Abubakar Tauseef  4 , Ali Bin Abdul Jabbar  4
Affiliations

Trends and Disparities in Parkinson's Disease Mortality in the United States with Predictions Using Machine Learning

Henry Weresh et al. NeuroSci. .

Abstract

Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative condition characterized by the degradation of dopaminergic pathways in the brain. As the population in the United States continues to age, it is essential to understand the trends in mortality related to PD. This analysis of PD's mortality characterizes temporal shifts, examines demographic and regional differences, and provides machine-learning predictions.

Methods: PD-related deaths in the United States were gathered from CDC WONDER. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were collected, and trends were analyzed based on gender, race, region, age, and place of death. Annual percent change and average annual percent change were calculated using Joinpoint Regression program. Forecasts were obtained using the optimal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.

Results: Overall mortality rate due to Parkinson's increased from 1999 to 2022. Male gender, White race, Southern region, and older ages were associated with higher mortality compared to other groups. Deaths at home decreased and hospice deaths increased during the study period.

Conclusions: This study highlights the increasing rate of PD AAMR and how it may become even more prevalent with time, emphasizing the value of increasing knowledge surrounding the disease and its trends to better prepare health systems and individual families for the burden of PD.

Keywords: Parkinson disease; Parkinson disease mortality; healthcare disparities; machine learning; mortality.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Parkinson’s disease age-adjusted mortality rate per 100,000 people in US from 1999 to 2022, (a) overall and stratified by biological sex; (b) stratified by race.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Parkinson’s disease age-adjusted mortality rate per 100,000 people in US from 1999 to 2022, (a) stratified by US census regions; (b) stratified by age groups.
Figure 3
Figure 3
State level change in Parkinson disease mortality in the US (a) from 1999 to 2019; (b) from 2019 to 2020.
Figure 4
Figure 4
(a) Overall Parkinson’s disease AAMR from 1999 to 2022 when COVID-19 pandemic years spike highlighted in red line and forecasted AAMR based on pre-pandemic trend till 2030. (b) shows forecasted AAMR with 95% confidence intervals in green highlighted area.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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