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. 2025 Jan 26;83(1):25.
doi: 10.1186/s13690-024-01496-x.

Modeling the determinants of cigarette consumption in Iranian households with children under 5 years of age using the Income and Expenditure Survey 2021

Shakila Bagheri  1 , Naser Kamyari  2 , Saeed Hesam  1 , Maryam Seyedtabib  3
Affiliations

Modeling the determinants of cigarette consumption in Iranian households with children under 5 years of age using the Income and Expenditure Survey 2021

Shakila Bagheri et al. Arch Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Cigarette smoking remains a significant public health concern, with detrimental effects on both smokers and those exposed to secondhand smoke. This study investigates the factors influencing smoking behaviors in Iranian households, focusing on households with children under five years old.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 8751 Iranian households using data from the Iranian Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) collected by the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) in 2021. A variety of count regression models were examined, including Poisson (P), Negative Binomial (NB), Generalized Poisson (GP) and their zero-inflated counterparts. The best fitting model was selected based on goodness-of-fit indices.

Results: Approximately 87% of households were non-smokers, with a mean daily cigarette consumption of 14.29 (SD = 8.64) among smokers. The three-level Zero-Inflated Generalized Poisson (TL-ZIGP) model was considered a suitable model for the interpretation of the data. Key predictors of smoking included older age, male gender, lower education, higher income, and larger homes. Homeownership was negatively associated with smoking. Considerable geographic variation in smoking prevalence was observed.

Conclusions: Socioeconomic and demographic factors, including lifestyle and geographic regions, are associated with smoking behavior among Iranian households. A three-level ZIGP regression model is appropriate for analyzing these complex relationships. This study reveals different patterns of smoking prevalence in different population subgroups and emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to effectively reduce smoking rates.

Keywords: Count regression models; Iranian households; Smoking behavior; Zero-inflated models.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Ahvaz University of Medical Sciences (approval number IR.AJUMS.REC.1402.067). All procedures conform to the ethical standards of the relevant national and institutional committees for human experimentation and the Declaration of Helsinki of 1975 as amended in 2008. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Distribution of daily cigarette consumption in Iranian households with at least one child under the age of 5 years, based on the Income and Expenditure survey conducted in 2021
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Variations in the percentage of smoking (left) and the average daily cigarette consumption (right) in Iranian households with at least one child under 5 years old, categorized by province in 2021
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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