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Randomized Controlled Trial
. 2025 Jan 2;8(1):e2456307.
doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.56307.

Net Benefit of Early Anticoagulation for Stroke With Atrial Fibrillation: Post Hoc Analysis of the ELAN Randomized Clinical Trial

Collaborators, Affiliations
Randomized Controlled Trial

Net Benefit of Early Anticoagulation for Stroke With Atrial Fibrillation: Post Hoc Analysis of the ELAN Randomized Clinical Trial

Alexandros A Polymeris et al. JAMA Netw Open. .

Abstract

Importance: The net clinical effect of early vs later direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) initiation after atrial fibrillation-associated ischemic stroke is unclear.

Objective: To investigate whether early DOAC treatment is associated with a net clinical benefit (NCB).

Design, setting, and participants: This was a post hoc analysis of the Early Versus Late Initiation of Direct Oral Anticoagulants in Post-Ischaemic Stroke Patients With Atrial Fibrillation (ELAN) open-label randomized clinical trial conducted across 103 sites in 15 countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia between November 6, 2017, and September 12, 2022, with a 90-day follow-up. Participants included patients with atrial fibrillation-associated acute ischemic stroke, excluding those with therapeutic anticoagulation at stroke onset or with severe hemorrhagic transformation of the ischemic infarct.

Intervention: Early DOAC initiation (<48 hours after minor and moderate stroke, 6-7 days after major stroke) vs later initiation (3-4 days after minor stroke, 6-7 days after moderate stroke, and 12-14 days after major stroke).

Main outcomes and measures: The main measure was the NCB of early treatment over later treatment, calculated by subtracting the weighted rate of excess bleeding events (major extracranial or intracranial hemorrhage) attributable to early treatment from the rate of excess ischemic events (recurrent stroke or systemic embolism) possibly prevented by early treatment within 30 days (main analysis) or 90 days (ancillary analysis). An established weighting scheme was used to account for the different clinical impact of bleeding relative to ischemic outcomes. Event rates were derived from adjusted logistic models. The analysis included all evaluable randomized ELAN participants.

Results: Of the original 2013 ELAN participants, 1966 were eligible for analysis (977 [49.7%] assigned to early DOAC initiation, 989 [50.3%] assigned to later DOAC initiation; median [IQR] age 77 [70-84] years; 1075 [54.7%] male). The 30-day NCB of early treatment over later treatment ranged from 1.73 (95% CI, 0.06-3.40) to 1.72 (95% CI, -0.63 to 3.98) weighted events possibly prevented per 100 participants for intracranial hemorrhage weights 1.5 to 3.3. The 90-day NCB ranged from 2.16 (95% CI, 0.30-3.87) to 2.14 (95% CI, -0.26 to 4.41) weighted events per 100 participants.

Conclusions and relevance: This post hoc analysis of a randomized clinical trial estimated a sizeable NCB of early anticoagulation for patients after atrial fibrillation-associated ischemic stroke. Although estimates cannot exclude the possibility of no benefit or small net harm, the findings suggest that early treatment may be more favorable.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03148457.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Polymeris reported receiving grants from the Swiss Academy of Medical Sciences/Bangerter-Foundation, Swiss Heart Foundation, Swiss National Science Foundation, and Freiwillige Akademische Gesellschaft Basel outside the submitted work. Dr Sandset reported serving as a steering committee member of the OCEANIC trial (Bayer), AXIOMATIC trial (BMS), ANNEXA-i (AstraZeneca), with honoraria paid to her institution. Dr Aguiar de Sousa reported receiving personal fees from Daiichi Sankyo, AstraZeneca, Bial, Johnson & Johnson; and receiving grants from MSD outside the submitted work. Dr Thomalla reported receiving personal fees from Acandis, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Daiichi Sankyo outside the submitted work. Dr Gattringer reported receiving grants from the Austrian Science Fund; and receiving personal fees from BMS/Pfizer Boehringer-Ingelheim, Novartis, Amgen, and AstraZeneca outside the submitted work. Dr Michel reported receiving grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation, Swiss Heart Foundation, and the University of Lausanne outside the submitted work. Dr Koga reported receiving personal fees from Daiichi Sankyo BMS/Pfizer, AstraZeneca Honoraria, and Otsuka Pharmaceutical; receiving research support from Daiichi Sankyo and from Nippon Boehringer Ingelheim; and serving as an expert consultant for BMS/Janssen outside the submitted work. Dr Gdovinova reported receiving personal fees from Pfizer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, and MSD outside the submitted work. Dr Lemmens reported receiving consulting fees from BMS, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Pfizer through his institution outside the submitted work. Dr Bornstein reported receiving personal fees from Ever Neuro Pharma outside the submitted work. Dr Kelly reported receiving grants from Daiichi Sankyo paid to the Stroke Clinical Trials Network Ireland outside the submitted work. Dr Goeldlin reported receiving grants from Bangerter-Rhyner-Foundation/Swiss Academy of Medical Sciences during the conduct of the study; receiving grants from Bangerter-Rhyner-Foundation/Swiss Academy of Medical Sciences, Insel Gruppe AG, European Stroke Organisation Department, and Mittelbauvereinigung Universität Bern Networking outside the submitted work; and receiving congressional bursary from the European Academy of Neurology. Dr Selim reported receiving grants from the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and the National Institute on Aging; and receiving personal fees from AegisCN, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, MedRhythma, UpToDate, NeuGel Therapeutics, and Oxford University Press outside the submitted work. Dr Dawson reported receiving grants from the Stroke Association during the conduct of the study. Dr Fischer reported receiving grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation and the Swiss Heart Foundation during the conduct of the study; receiving grants from Medtronic, Stryker, Phenox, Penumbra, RapidMedical, and Boehringer Ingelheim outside the submitted work; receiving consultancy fees paid to his institution from Medtronic; participating in the advisory board for AstraZeneca (former Alexion/Portola), Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Biogen, AbbVie, Siemens (fees paid to his institution); serving as a member of a clinical event committee for Phenox and of the data and safety monitoring committee of the TITAN, LATE_MT, IN EXTREMIS and RapidPulse trials; and serving as president of the Swiss Neurological Society and president-elect of the European Stroke Organisation. No other disclosures were reported.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.. Study Flowchart
DOAC indicates direct oral anticoagulant; ELAN, the Early Versus Late Initiation of Direct Oral Anticoagulants in Post–Ischaemic Stroke Patients With Atrial Fibrillation randomized clinical trial.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.. Net Clinical Benefit of Early Direct Oral Anticoagulant (DOAC) Initiation Over Later DOAC Initiation at 30 Days
Net clinical benefit is expressed in weighted events possibly prevented per 100 participants. The solid line represents the net clinical benefit estimate across the entire range of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) weights; and the gray shaded area, 95% Cl.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.. Net Clinical Benefit of Early Direct Oral Anticoagulant (DOAC) Initiation Over Later DOAC Initiation at 90 Days
Net clinical benefit is expressed in weighted events possibly prevented per 100 participants. The solid line represents the net clinical benefit estimate across the entire range of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) weights; and the gray shaded area, 95% CIs.

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References

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