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Review
. 2025 Apr:62:101994.
doi: 10.1016/j.copsyc.2025.101994. Epub 2025 Jan 22.

Predicting norm change using threshold models

Moritz Janas  1 , Nikos Nikiforakis  2 , Simon Siegenthaler  3
Affiliations
Review

Predicting norm change using threshold models

Moritz Janas et al. Curr Opin Psychol. 2025 Apr.

Abstract

Anticipating changes in social norms presents a significant challenge for social scientists. Historical instances when researchers failed to predict dramatic shifts in collective behavior, along with the persistence of norms that impede welfare, underscore the need for a deeper understanding of how norms evolve. This article reviews current advancements in predicting norm change using threshold models. We document the rise of empirical studies, emphasize recent methodological developments, and discuss open questions for future research.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Nikos Nikiforakis, Simon Siegenthaler reports financial support was provided by National Science Foundation (grant 2242443). If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper

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