Global epidemiology of lower limb fractures: Trends, burden, and projections from the GBD 2021 study

Abstract

Background: Lower limb fractures are a significant global public health issue, imposing considerable social and economic burdens. Despite their prevalence, comprehensive analyses of the global epidemiology of lower limb fractures remain scarce. This study aims to address this gap.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we analyzed four types of lower limb fractures: fractures of foot bones excluding the ankle (FFB), hip fractures (FH), fractures of the patella, tibia or fibula, or ankle (FPTFA), and femur fractures excluding the femoral neck (FF), and conducted a detailed assessment of them.

Results: FPTFA was the most burdensome fracture type, with Slovenia showing the highest age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and Saudi Arabia having the highest age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and years lived with disability rate (ASYR). The burden of lower limb fractures increased with age, but FFB and FPTFA showed a "double peak" age distribution, with FFB most common in the 20-24 age group. Lower limb fractures were more prevalent in males among younger individuals and in females among older populations. From 1990 to 2021, the burden of lower limb fractures, excluding FH, decreased (EAPC <1), though the incidence of FF is projected to increase (EAPC = 0.14, 95 % CI 0.1-0.18) over the next decade.

Conclusion: Although the global burden of lower limb fractures, excluding FH, has decreased in recent years, vigilance is still needed. Given the projected rise in FF incidence over the next decade, preventive measures should be implemented early.

Keywords: Fracture; Fracture of hip; Global burden of disease; Lower limb; Prediction.