Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2025 Jan 14;11(2):e41962.
doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2025.e41962. eCollection 2025 Jan 30.

Spatio-temporal patterns of cholera outbreak in rural settings of Ethiopia, 2023

Solomon Hailemariam Tesfaye  1 , Andualem Mamo  2 , Wondayehu Berihanu  2 , Serawit Elias  2
Affiliations

Spatio-temporal patterns of cholera outbreak in rural settings of Ethiopia, 2023

Solomon Hailemariam Tesfaye et al. Heliyon. .

Abstract

Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the spatio-temporal pattern of cholera in rural settings of Ethiopia.

Methods: A spatiotemporal analysis of daily cholera cases in 59 Kebeles across 7 districts in the Gedeo zone from April 2 to November 18, 2023, obtained from the Gedeo Zone Health Department, was conducted. The global Moran's I statistic was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the retrospective space-time scan statistic was used to analyze spatiotemporal clusters of cholera.

Results: Throughout the outbreak, 792 cholera cases were reported, corresponding to an annual incidence of 169.4 per 100,000 population. The spatial distribution showed strong autocorrelation, with a global Moran's I coefficient of 0.272 (P-value <0.001). Five statistically significant clusters were identified by space-time scan statistics using a discrete Poisson model. These identified clusters overlapped in time and had longer durations with a relatively high risk of cholera in the study areas.

Conclusion: The identification of high-risk clusters specific to rural settings forms the basis for rapid public health emergency response and resource allocation by prioritizing the significantly high-risk clusters to control and eventually eliminate cholera. There is room to improve the public health response to cholera outbreaks in the study settings.

Keywords: Cholera; Ethiopia; Outbreak; Patterns; Rural; Spatio-temporal.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Regions in Ethiopia (A), SNNPR (B), and Map of study area (C).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Weekly epidemic curves in Gedeo Zone (A), Weekly epidemic curves stratified by districts (B).
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Cumulative incidence of cholera cases per 100,000 population by Kebeles, Gedeo Zone, Ethiopia, April 2 to November 18, 2023.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Spatial autocorrelation.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Spatiotemporal clusters of Cholera in Gedeo Zone, Ethiopia.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

References

    1. Mandal S., Mandal M.D., Pal N.K. Cholera: a great global concern. Asian Pac. J. Tropical Med. 2011;4(7):573–580. - PubMed
    1. Kaper J.B., Morris J.G., Jr., Levine M.M. Cholera. Clin. Microbiol. Rev. 1995;8(1):48–86. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Chowdhury F., Ross A.G., Islam M.T., McMillan N.A.J., Qadri F. Diagnosis, management, and future control of cholera. Clin. Microbiol. Rev. 2022;35(3) - PMC - PubMed
    1. Cholera Annual Report 2022. Weekly Epidemiological Record 38, 22 September 2023, Vol vol. 98, (pp 431-452).
    1. Rebaudet S., Sudre B., Faucher B., Piarroux R. Environmental determinants of cholera outbreaks in inland Africa: a systematic review of main transmission foci and propagation routes. J. Infect. Dis. 2013;208(Suppl 1):S46–S54. - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources