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. 2025 Feb 4;197(3):234.
doi: 10.1007/s10661-025-13694-3.

Different threshold responses in spontaneously changing postagrogenic forest and unmanaged grassland. Shifts in small mammal populations and communities triggered by an extraordinary drought

Nikolay A Shchipanov  1 , Philipp A Tumasian  2 , Alexander V Kuptsov  1 , Alexandra A Raspopova  3 , Mikhail V Kasatkin  4 , Alexey A Kalinin  1 , Tatiana B Demidova  1 , Svetlana V Pavlova  5
Affiliations

Different threshold responses in spontaneously changing postagrogenic forest and unmanaged grassland. Shifts in small mammal populations and communities triggered by an extraordinary drought

Nikolay A Shchipanov et al. Environ Monit Assess. .

Abstract

Due to their resilience, various biological systems under environmental changes typically exhibit nonlinear responses with sudden, abrupt shifts. Although such shifts are theoretically expected, few studies traced state-and-transition dynamics in nature (Liu et al., Science 317:1513-1516, 2007). We analysed 18 years' data to trace biomass patterns, species assemblages and small mammals' population trajectories in spontaneously growing forest on formerly ploughed field, hereafter, the postagrogenic forest, and in unmanaged former pasture, hereafter, the grassland. The clear response at individual, populational and ecosystem scales triggered by extraordinary 2010 drought was observed. In the postagrogenic forest, transitioning to the historical ecosystem state, we found a shift from the grassland type of the small mammals' biomass pattern to the forest type with the abrupt reorganisation of the small mammals' community. In the grassland, a relatively steady novel ecosystem, we revealed only a long-term diminishing of total small mammals' biomass, i.e. a regime shift, while maintaining the same functional structure. The changes were based on population response. The bank vole did not show any population reaction, which testifies the ability of individuals to tolerate the drought. The common shrew experienced a population depression, which in postagrogenic forest resulted in the regimen shift after recovery, but in the grassland in only temporal decline with following return to the initial state. The root vole showed a delayed population response with the general decline of population in the grassland, and population collapse in the postagrogenic forest. Therefore, the same impact triggered various responses among different species and resulted in different effects in the successional and steady ecosystems.

Keywords: Climatic trigger event; Ecosystem resilience; Population trajectory; Shrews; Voles.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethics approval: All applicable international, national and/or institutional guidelines for the care and use of animals were followed. All procedures performed in experiments involving animals were approved by the Bioethical Committee on Animal and Human Research at A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of the Russian Academy of Sciences (which are in accordance with recommendations of US and EU ethical committees) (permission No. 30 issued on February 27, 2019, with extension No. 30a issued April 10, 2023), following all relevant laws and regulations. This article does not contain any experiments on human subjects performed by any of the co-authors. The capture method used does not affect animal welfare. No animal died in traps in the course of the study. All authors have read, understood, and have complied as applicable with the statement on ‘Ethical responsibilities of Authors’ as found in the Instructions for Authors. Consent to participate: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

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