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. 2025 Mar;22(2):e00552.
doi: 10.1016/j.neurot.2025.e00552. Epub 2025 Feb 17.

First-year treatment response predicts the following 5-year disease course in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

Simona Toscano  1 , Tim Spelman  2 , Serkan Ozakbas  3 , Raed Alroughani  4 , Clara G Chisari  5 , Salvatore Lo Fermo  5 , Alexandre Prat  6 , Marc Girard  6 , Pierre Duquette  6 , Guillermo Izquierdo  7 , Sara Eichau  7 , Pierre Grammond  8 , Cavit Boz  9 , Tomas Kalincik  10 , Yolanda Blanco  11 , Katherine Buzzard  12 , Olga Skibina  12 , Maria Jose Sa  13 , Anneke van der Walt  14 , Helmut Butzkueven  14 , Murat Terzi  15 , Oliver Gerlach  16 , Francois Grand'Maison  17 , Matteo Foschi  18 , Andrea Surcinelli  19 , Michael Barnett  20 , Alessandra Lugaresi  21 , Marco Onofrj  22 , Bassem Yamout  23 , Samia J Khoury  23 , Julie Prevost  24 , Jeannette Lechner-Scott  25 , Davide Maimone  26 , Maria Pia Amato  27 , Daniele Spitaleri  28 , Vincent Van Pesch  29 , Richard Macdonell  30 , Elisabetta Cartechini  31 , Koen de Gans  32 , Mark Slee  33 , Tamara Castillo-Triviño  34 , Aysun Soysal  35 , Jose Luis Sanchez-Menoyo  36 , Guy Laureys  37 , Liesbeth Van Hijfte  37 , Pamela McCombe  38 , Ayse Altintas  39 , Bianca Weinstock-Guttman  40 , Eduardo Aguera-Morales  41 , Masoud Etemadifar  42 , Cristina Ramo-Tello  43 , Nevin John  44 , Recai Turkoglu  45 , Suzanne Hodgkinson  46 , Sarah Besora  47 , Bart Van Wijmeersch  48 , Ricardo Fernandez-Bolaños  49 , Francesco Patti  50 ; MSBase Study Group
Affiliations

First-year treatment response predicts the following 5-year disease course in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

Simona Toscano et al. Neurotherapeutics. 2025 Mar.

Abstract

Predicting long-term prognosis and choosing the appropriate therapeutic approach in patients with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) at the time of diagnosis is crucial in view of a personalized medicine. We investigated the impact of early therapeutic response on the 5-year prognosis of patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). We recruited patients from MSBase Registry covering the period between 1996 and 2022. All patients were diagnosed with RRMS and actively followed-up for at least 5 years to explore the following outcomes: clinical relapses, confirmed disability worsening (CDW) and improvement (CDI), EDSS 3.0, EDSS 6.0, conversion to secondary progressive MS (SPMS), new MRI lesions, Progression Independent of Relapse Activity (PIRA). Predictors included demographic, clinical and radiological data, and sub-optimal response (SR) within the first year of treatment. Female sex (HR 1.27; 95 ​% CI 1.16-1.40) and EDSS at baseline (HR 1.19; 95 ​% CI 1.15-1.24) were independent risk factors for the occurrence of relapses during the first 5 years after diagnosis, while high-efficacy treatment (HR 0.78; 95 ​% CI 0.67-0.91) and age at diagnosis (HR 0.83; 95 ​% CI 0.79-0.86) significantly reduced the risk. SR predicted clinical relapses (HR ​= ​3.84; 95 ​% CI 3.51-4.19), CDW (HR ​= ​1.74; 95 ​% CI 1.56-1.93), EDSS 3.0 (HR ​= ​3.01; 95 ​% CI 2.58-3.51), EDSS 6.0 (HR ​= ​1.77; 95 ​% CI 1.43-2.20) and new brain (HR ​= ​2.33; 95 ​% CI 2.04-2.66) and spinal (HR 1.65; 95 ​% CI 1.29-2.09) MRI lesions. This study highlights the importance of selecting the appropriate DMT for each patient soon after MS diagnosis, also providing clinicians with a practical tool able to calculate personalized risk estimates for different outcomes.

Keywords: Disease-modifying treatment; High-efficacy drugs; Multiple sclerosis; Nomogram; Prognosis.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Dr Spelman, Dr Ozakbas, Dr Prat, Dr Girard, Dr Gerlach, Dr Surcinelli, Dr Onofrj, Dr Cartechini, Dr Slee, Dr Soysal, Dr Etemadifar, Dr Turkoglu and Dr Besora have nothing to declare. Dr Toscano has received congress and travel/accommodation from Biogen, Novartis, Roche, Janssen and Sanofi Genzyme. Dr Alroughani received honoraria as a speaker and for serving on scientific advisory boards from Bayer, Biogen, GSK, Merck, Novartis, Roche and Sanofi-Genzyme. Dr Chisari has received congress and travel/accommodation from Alexion, Almirall, Biogen, Merck Serono, Novartis, Roche, and Sanofi Genzyme. Dr Lo Fermo has received congress and travel/accommodation from Alexion, Almirall, Biogen, Merck Serono, Novartis, Roche, and Sanofi Genzyme. Dr Duquette served on editorial boards and has been supported to attend meetings by EMD, Biogen, Novartis, Genzyme, and TEVA Neuroscience; he holds grants from the CIHR and the MS Society of Canada and has received funding for investigator-initiated trials from Biogen, Novartis, and Genzyme. Dr Izquierdo received speaking honoraria from Biogen, Novartis, Sanofi, Merck, Roche, Almirall and Teva. Dr Eichau received speaker honoraria and consultant fees from Biogen Idec, Novartis, Merck, Bayer, Sanofi Genzyme, Roche and Teva. Dr Grammond has served in advisory boards for Novartis, EMD Serono, Roche, Biogen idec, Sanofi Genzyme, Pendopharm and has received grant support from Genzyme and Roche, has received research grants for his institution from Biogen idec, Sanofi Genzyme, EMD Serono. Dr Boz received conference travel support from Biogen, Novartis, Bayer-Schering, Merck and Teva; has participated in clinical trials by Sanofi Aventis, Roche and Novartis. Dr Kalincik served on scientific advisory boards for MS International Federation and World Health Organisation, BMS, Roche, Janssen, Sanofi Genzyme, Novartis, Merck and Biogen, steering committee for Brain Atrophy Initiative by Sanofi Genzyme, received conference travel support and/or speaker honoraria from WebMD Global, Eisai, Novartis, Biogen, Roche, Sanofi-Genzyme, Teva, BioCSL and Merck and received research or educational event support from Biogen, Novartis, Genzyme, Roche, Celgene and Merck. Dr Blanco received speaker honoraria/consulting fees from Merck, Biogen, Roche, Brystol, Novartis, Sanofi and Sandoz. Dr Buzzard received speaker honoraria and/or education support from Biogen, Teva, Novartis, Genzyme-Sanofi, Roche, Merck and Alexion; has been a member of advisory boards for Merck and Biogen. Dr Skibina received honoraria and consulting fees from Bayer Schering, Novartis, Merck, Biogen and Genzyme. Dr Sa received consulting fees, speaker honoraria, and/or travel expenses for scientific meetings from Alexion, Bayer Healthcare, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celgene, Janssen, Merck-Serono, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi and Teva. Dr van der Walt served on advisory boards and receives unrestricted research grants from Novartis, Biogen, Merck and Roche She has received speaker's honoraria and travel support from Novartis, Roche, and Merck; she receives grant support from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and MS Research Australia. Dr Butzkueven received institutional (Monash University) funding from Biogen, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Merck, Alexion, CSL, and Novartis; has carried out contracted research for Novartis, Merck, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Biogen; has taken part in speakers' bureaus for Biogen, Genzyme, UCB, Novartis, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Merck; has received personal compensation from Oxford Health Policy Forum for the Brain Health Steering Committee. Dr Terzi received travel grants from Novartis, Bayer-Schering, Merck and Teva; has participated in clinical trials by Sanofi Aventis, Roche and Novartis. Dr Grand’Maison received honoraria or research funding from Biogen, Genzyme, Novartis, Teva Neurosciences, and ATARA Pharmaceuticals. Dr Foschi received travel and meeting attendance support from Novartis, Biogen, Roche, Sanofi-Genzyme and Merck. Dr Barnett served on scientific advisory boards for Biogen, Novartis and Genzyme and has received conference travel support from Biogen and Novartis; he serves on steering committees for trials conducted by Novartis. His institution has received research support from Biogen, Merck and Novartis. Dr Lugaresi has received personal compensation for consulting, serving on a scientific advisory board, speaking or other activities from Alexion, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Janssen, Merck Serono, Novartis, and Sanofi/Genzyme, and Her institutions have received research grants from Novartis and Sanofi/Genzyme. Dr Yamout received honoraria as a speaker and member of scientific advisory boards from Sanofi, Bayer, Biogen, Merck, Janssen, Novartis, Roche and Aspen. Dr Khoury received compensation for scientific advisory board activity from Merck and Roche, and received compensation for serving on the IDMC for Biogen. Dr Prevost accepted travel compensation from Novartis, Biogen, Genzyme, Teva, and speaking honoraria from Biogen, Novartis, Genzyme and Teva. Dr Lechner-Scott received travel compensation from Novartis, Biogen, Roche and Merck. Her institution receives the honoraria for talks and advisory board commitment as well as research grants from Biogen, Merck, Roche, TEVA and Novartis. Dr Maimone received speaker honoraria for Advisory Board and travel grants from Almirall, Biogen, Merck, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi-Genzyme, and Teva. Dr Amato received honoraria as consultant on scientific advisory boards by Biogen, Bayer-Schering, Merck, Teva and Sanofi-Aventis; has received research grants by Biogen, Bayer-Schering, Merck, Teva and Novartis. Dr Spitaleri received honoraria as a consultant on scientific advisory boards by Bayer-Schering, Novartis and Sanofi-Aventis and compensation for travel from Novartis, Biogen, Sanofi Aventis, Teva and Merck. Dr van Pesch received travel grants from Merck Healthcare KGaA (Darmstadt, Germany), Biogen, Sanofi, Bristol Meyer Squibb, Almirall and Roche. His institution has received research grants and consultancy fees from Roche, Biogen, Sanofi, Merck Healthcare KGaA (Darmstadt, Germany), Bristol Meyer Squibb, Janssen, Almirall, Novartis Pharma, and Alexion. Dr Macdonell or his institution have received remuneration for his speaking engagements, advisory board memberships, research and travel from Biogen, Merck, Genzyme, Bayer, Roche, Teva, Novartis, CSL, BMS, MedDay and NHMRC. Dr de Gans served on scientific advisory boards for Roche, Janssen, Sanofi-Genzyme, Novartis and Merck, received conference fee and travel support from Novartis, Biogen, Sanofi-Genzyme, Teva, Abbvie and Merck and received educational event support from Novartis. Dr Castillo-Triviño received speaking/consulting fees and/or travel funding from Almirall, Biogen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi-Genzyme and Teva. Dr Sanchez-Menoyo accepted travel compensation from Novartis, Merck and Biogen, speaking honoraria from Biogen, Novartis, Sanofi, Merck, Almirall, Bayer and Teva and has participated in clinical trials by Biogen, Merck and Roche. Dr laureys received travel and/or consultancy compensation from Sanofi-Genzyme, Roche, Teva, Merck, Novartis, Celgene, Biogen. Dr Van Hijfte received travel compensation from Merck. Dr McCombe received speaker fees and travel grants from Novartis, Biogen, T’évalua, Sanofi. Dr Altintas received speaker honoraria from Novartis and Alexion. Dr Weinstock-Guttman has participated in speaker's bureaus and/or served as a consultant for Biogen, EMD Serono, Novartis, Genentech, Celgene/Bristol Meyers Squibb, Sanofi Genzyme, Bayer, Janssen and Horizon; he has received grant/research support from the agencies listed in the previous sentence. She serves in the editorial board for BMJ Neurology, Children, CNS Drugs, MS International and Frontiers Epidemiology. Dr Aguera-Morales has received honoraria as a speaker and for serving on scientific advisory boards from Biogen, Merck, Novartis and Sanofi-Genzyme. Dr Ramo-Tello has received research funding, or compensation for consulting services and speaker honoraria, or meetings travels from Biogen, Novartis, Sanofi, Bristol, Roche, Almirall and Merck. Dr John received funding from Novartis, Biogen, Amicus and Sanofi. Dr Hodgkinson has received consulting fees and speaker honoraria from Biogen, Novartis, Roche, Merck, and has received grants for her Institution from Biogen, Merck, Novartis, and Roche. Dr Van Wijmeersch received research and travel grants, honoraria for MS-Expert advisor and Speaker fees from Almirall, Biogen, BMS, Imcyse, Janssen, Sanofi, Merck, Novartis, Roche and Teva. Dr Fernandez-Bolaños received speaking honoraria from Biogen, Novartis, Merck and Teva. Prof. Patti has received honoraria for speaking activities by Alexion, Almirall, Bayer Schering, Biogen, Merck Serono, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi Genzyme, and TEVA; he also served as advisory board member for the following companies: Bayer Schering, Biogen, Merck Serono, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi Genzyme, and TEVA; he was funded by Pfizer and FISM for epidemiological studies; he received grants for congress participation from Alexion, Almirall, Bayer Shering, Biogen, Merck Serono, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi Genzyme, and TEVA. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Nomograms used to determine the risk of relapses, disability progression and achievement of EDSS milestones. Each predictor has to be matched with the corresponding number of points on the top “Points” scale (vertical lines). a) Nomogram used to determine the risk of relapses within 5 years. b) Nomogram used to determine the risk of confirmed disability progression within 5 years. c) Nomogram used to determine the risk of reaching EDSS 3.0 within 5 years. d) Nomogram used to determine the risk of reaching EDSS 6.0 within 5 years. EDSS: Expanded Disability Status Scale.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Nomograms used to determine the risk of EDSS improvement, development of new brain lesions, conversion to SPMS and PIRA. Each predictor has to be matched with the corresponding number of points on the top “Points” scale (vertical lines). a) Nomogram used to predict the risk of EDSS improvement within 5 years. b) Nomogram used to determine the risk of developing new brain lesions at MRI within 5 years. c) Nomogram used to determine the risk of conversion to SPMS within 5 years. d) Nomogram used to determine the risk of PIRA within 5 years. EDSS: Expanded Disability Status Scale; SPMS: Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis; PIRA: Progression Independent of Relapse Activity.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Worked example of how to use nomograms to predict the risk of relapses during the first 5 years from diagnosis. Each predictor has to be matched with the corresponding number of points on the top “Points” scale (vertical lines). a) The age of 35 years matches to 56 points, the female sex to 12.5 points, a baseline EDSS score of 2.5 matches to 22.5 points, the choice of DMT others than HET corresponds to 28 points and the absence of suboptimal response to 0 points. This sums to a cumulative total of 119 points. Drawing a line down from the “Total Points” scale to the corresponding “Probability of relapse” scale reveals that 119 total points corresponds to a probability of relapses of 52 ​% for this hypothetic patient. b) The age of 40 years (50 points), the male sex (0 points), a baseline EDSS score of 2.5 (22.5 points), the use of HET (0 points) and the absence of suboptimal response (0 points) sums to a cumulative score of 72.5 points, corresponding to a 25 ​% probability of relapses for this hypothetic patient.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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