Timing of ctDNA Analysis Aimed at Guiding Adjuvant Treatment in Colorectal Cancer

Abstract

Purpose: Multiple clinical trials are investigating ctDNA to guide adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in colorectal cancer. Timely ACT initiation necessitates early ctDNA testing, but the impact of postoperative cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and ctDNA dynamics remains unclear, particularly with cost-reducing input caps employed in some assays. This study investigates ctDNA detection at day 14 versus day 30, comparing whole-sample analysis with capping the cfDNA input, and evaluates single and dual timepoint assessments for ACT allocation.

Experimental design: From 2019 to 2023, 611 patients with stage I to III colorectal cancer were enrolled. Blood was collected preoperatively and postoperatively on ∼day 14 and ∼day 30. The cfDNA levels were assessed using digital PCR, and ctDNA was assessed using tumor-informed digital PCR or targeted sequencing analyzing all cfDNA from 8 mL of plasma.

Results: Despite elevated cfDNA in 85% of day 14 samples, performance was comparable between the two timepoints (sensitivity, 31% vs. 32% and specificity, both 98%). A 50-ng cfDNA input cap reduced ctDNA detection probability, affecting 78% of day 14 samples and 65% of day 30 samples. At both timepoints, ctDNA detection was prognostic of recurrence (day 14; HR, 9.0, 95% confidence interval, 5.5-14.8 and day 30: HR, 12.5, 95% confidence interval, 7.6-20.4). In 74% of ctDNA-positive recurrence patients, both samples had ctDNA detected. An increase in the ctDNA level from day 14 to day 30 was associated with a shorter time to recurrence (Pearson R = -0.63, P = 0.003). Combining the timepoints would increase sensitivity (36%) and allow earlier ACT start in 80% of patients.

Conclusions: Early ctDNA sampling is feasible and highly prognostic. Supplemental later testing may improve sensitivity while allowing early ACT initiation for most ctDNA-positive patients.