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. 2025 Jan 24;17(2):158.
doi: 10.3390/v17020158.

Rising Incidence and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Emerging and Reemerging Arboviruses in Brazil

Matheus Daudt-Lemos  1 , Alice Ramos-Silva  1 , Renan Faustino  1   2 , Tatiana Guimarães de Noronha  3   4 , Renata Artimos de Oliveira Vianna  3 , Mauro Jorge Cabral-Castro  1   5 , Claudete Aparecida Araújo Cardoso  1   3 , Andrea Alice Silva  1   3   5 , Fabiana Rabe Carvalho  1   5
Affiliations

Rising Incidence and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Emerging and Reemerging Arboviruses in Brazil

Matheus Daudt-Lemos et al. Viruses. .

Abstract

Background: Brazil has witnessed the co-circulation of dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV), and chikungunya virus (CHIKV), with outbreaks exacerbated by environmental factors, social determinants, and poor sanitation. The recent re-emergence of Oropouche virus (OROV) has added complexity to vector control strategies, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches to curb arboviruses spread. We aimed to analyze temporal trends and spatial distributions with national scope of these emerging arboviruses.

Methods: An ecological study using data from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System the period from 2023 to 2024 was undertaken. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression, while spatial analysis was conducted using Moran's I, and local indicators of spatial association.

Results: Dengue fever cases increased by 322%, while Oropouche fever (OF) increased by 300%. The states of Amazonas and Espírito Santo reported increases in OF cases. Moran's I test revealed spatial clustering of DENV and CHIKV. Two municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul showed cocirculation of DENV, CHIKV, and ZIKV.

Conclusions: This study identified a surge in arbovirus cases between 2023 and 2024, with peak incidences from January to March and October to December, linked to favorable climatic conditions. Clustering patterns and co-circulation of arboviruses highlight the need for tailored control and prevention strategies and targeted interventions to mitigate their impact.

Keywords: Oropouche virus; Zika virus; chikungunya virus; dengue; emergent pathogen.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Distribution of Oropouche and Zika cases per 100,000 inhabitants from January 2023 to September 2024.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Distribution of dengue and chikungunya cases per 100,000 inhabitants from January 2023 to September 2024.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Spatial distribution of hotspots for dengue, Zika, and chikungunya in Brazil. Red (high–high): Municipalities with high incidence located in regions of high incidence for each arbovirus; Green (low–low): Municipalities with low incidence situated in areas of low incidence for each arbovirus; Gray (not significant): Municipalities with non-significant spatial patterns.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Temporal trends of arbovirus cases in Brazil: Observed and modeled data by Joinpoint regression. Panel (A) shows dengue and Chikungunya cases, with red dots and lines representing observed and modeled cases for dengue, and green dots and lines representing observed and modeled cases for Chikungunya. Panel (B) depicts Zika and Oropouche cases, with blue dots and lines representing observed and modeled cases for Zika, and purple dots and lines representing observed and modeled cases for Oropouche. The X-axis represents epidemiological weeks from January 2023 to September 2024, while the Y-axis shows case counts, using primary and secondary axes for each arbovirus.
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