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. 2025 Feb 28;11(9):eads4508.
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.ads4508. Epub 2025 Feb 26.

Anthropogenic intensification of Arctic anticyclonic circulation

Zhongfang Liu  1 , Camille Risi  2 , Francis Codron  3 , Guillaume Gastineau  3 , Xiaohe Huan  1 , Haimao Lan  1 , Wanling Xu  1 , Gabriel J Bowen  4
Affiliations

Anthropogenic intensification of Arctic anticyclonic circulation

Zhongfang Liu et al. Sci Adv. .

Abstract

The past four decades have witnessed a strengthening of the winter anticyclonic circulation over the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), a change that has contributed substantially to amplified local warming and sea ice loss, as well as to Eurasian cooling. However, the cause of this trend in the BKS atmospheric circulation remains unknown. Here we show that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the primary driver of the strengthening of the BKS anticyclonic circulation, with anthropogenic aerosols playing a secondary role, both together accounting for about 86% of the observed circulation trend. Both forcings induce an amplified BKS low-tropospheric warming through coupling with strong sea ice loss. This amplified warming raises geopotential height aloft through thermal expansion, causing an anomalous anticyclonic anomaly, which in turn enhances warming and sea ice loss, forming a positive feedback loop. Our work provides a theoretical framework for understanding Arctic atmospheric circulation responses to anthropogenic warming and may have implications for climate and environment in the Arctic and beyond.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.. Observed changes in winter (December-January-February) Arctic atmospheric circulation during the period 1980–2023.
(A) Linear trend of 300-hPa geopotential height (Z300). (B) Longitude-height cross section of linear trend of geopotential height (Z) over the 70° to 85°N. (C) Time series of the BKS anticyclonic circulation index, defined as the area-averaged Z300 anomaly over the 10°–100°E and 70°–85°N [green box shown in (A)]. Trends and time series are calculated from 3-year means (with 2-year means for the period 2022–2023). The stippling in (A) and (B) shows statistical significance at the 5% level.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.. Simulated changes in winter Arctic atmospheric circulation in response to different forcings during the period 1980–2014.
(A to D) Linear trends of Z300 for each type of forcing: ALL (A), GHG (B), AER (C), and NAT (D). All trends are calculated from 3-year means (with 2-year means for the period 2013–2014). The stippling shows statistical significance at the 5% level in all plots.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.. Attribution for changes in winter BKS anticyclonic circulation during the period 1980–2014.
(A) Three-year mean time series of observed and simulated BKS anticyclonic circulation indices. Gray shading represents 5 to 95% range of internal variability estimated from the preindustrial CTL simulations. (B) Linear trends of observed and simulated BKS anticyclonic circulation indices shown in (A) and their 5 to 95% uncertainty ranges (error bars). (C) The best estimates of the scaling factors and their 10 to 90% uncertainty ranges for two- (ANT and NAT) and three-signal (GHG, AER, and NAT) analyses of the changes in winter BKS anticyclonic circulation indices. (D) Attributable BKS anticyclonic circulation trends and their 10 to 90% uncertainty ranges. The time series used for detection and attribution are nonoverlapping 3-year averages.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.. Observed and simulated changes in temperature, SIC, and surface energy fluxes in the BKS.
(A) Longitude-height cross section of linear trends of observed winter temperature (T) over the 70° to 85°N. (B) Linear trends of observed winter sea ice concentration (SIC). (C) Linear trends of observed monthly T, SIC, net shortwave (Net SW, positive downward), sensible plus latent heat (SH+LH, positive upward), and upward longwave (Upward LW) fluxes. (D to F) The same as (A) to (C) but for ALL. The stippling in (A), (B), (D), and (E) shows statistical significance at the 5% level.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.. Simulated changes in temperature, SIC, and surface energy fluxes in the BKS in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols.
(A) Longitude-height cross section of linear trends of winter temperature (T) over the 70° to 85°N for GHG. (B) Linear trends of winter SIC for GHG. (C) Linear trends of monthly T, SIC, Net SW, SH+LH, and Upward LW fluxes for GHG. (D to F) The same as (A) to (C) but for AER. The stippling in (A), (B), (D), and (E) shows statistical significance at the 5% level.
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