A 10-year (2013-2023) analysis of incidence, etiology and mortality of acute pancreatitis in England

Abstract

Introduction: The aim of the present study was to report epidemiological data on the incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) in England between 2013 and 2023 and report contemporary post-AP outcomes.

Methods: A search of patients admitted with AP (2013-2023) was performed within the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) which covers all admitted patients within England using diagnosis (ICD-10) code K85.

Results: A total of 260,009 patients (median age, 59 years; IQR, 30; F:M, 1.02:1) were identified from 185 NHS trusts (2013-2023), with an incidence of 456 cases per million and an annual increase of 2.6 %. A total of 8.0 % patients required ITU admission. The AP readmission rate was 30.2 % after a median follow-up time of 45 months (Q1-Q3, 17-80 months). The in-hospital mortality rate was 4.5 % (n = 11,711). The overall survival at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years was 88.9 [95%CI 88.7,89], 85.2 [85.1,85.4], 76.1 [75.9,76.3] and 63.9 [63.6,64.2]. Long-term survival (10-year) was higher with biliary aetiology (p < 0.01), younger age groups (p < 0.05) and those without ITU admission (p < 0.01).

Conclusions: The incidence of AP in England is increasing and in-hospital mortality rates remain significant. These findings have implications for resource allocation to mitigate risk factors for developing AP in addition to the need for long-term follow-up for at-risk groups.

Clinical trial registration: N/A.