All-cause mortality according to COVID-19 vaccination status: An analysis of the UK office for National statistics public data

Abstract

Background: The mass vaccination campaign against COVID-19 has been commonly considered the best response to the global COVID-19 pandemic crisis. However, assessment of its real-world effect can be performed by analysis of all-cause mortality by vaccination status. The UK is perhaps the only country which has made publicly available all-cause mortality data by vaccination status.

Methods: Data from April 2021 to May 2023 published by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) were retrospectively analyzed by age groups and vaccination status; the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for all-cause and non-COVID-19 mortality was calculated against the corresponding unvaccinated groups.

Results: We found that across all age groups, all-cause mortality SMRs increased from a certain date, dependent on the age group. Across all age groups, all-cause mortality SMRs were initially much lower than 1. However, due to their increase, by a certain date for the 18-39, 80-89 and 90+ age groups they exceeded the reference value. For the other age groups, the date at which the SMR would reach 1 can be predicted, provided the trend is maintained. Non-COVID-19 SMRs' trends were very similar. Their initial values much lower than 1 are suggestive of significant biases in the ONS dataset, leading to underestimate the risks for the vaccinated people, as it is implausible that COVID-19 vaccines protect against non-COVID-19 deaths.

Conclusions: The increase over time in all-cause death SMRs in vaccinated people compared to unvaccinated, and their excess from the reference values for certain age groups, should be carefully considered to understand the underlying factors. Furthermore, since the initial values of the SMRs are much lower than 1, we assume the presence of significant biases in the ONS dataset, leading to understimate the risks for the vaccinated people, as it is implausible that COVID-19 vaccines protect against non-COVID-19 deaths. It would be desirable for other major countries to systematically collect all-cause mortality by vaccination status and, in the meantime, a pending indepth investigations, much greater caution should be exercised in promoting mass vaccination campaigns.

Keywords: COVID-19; COVID-19 vaccinations; all-cause mortality; Standardized Mortality Ratio.

Figure 1.. Regression line of the SMR trend of the 18-39 age group.

Figure 2.. Regression line of the SMR trend of the 40-49 age group.

Figure 3.. Regression line of the SMR trend of the 50-59 age group.

Figure 4.. Regression line of the SMR trend of the 60-69 age group.

Figure 5.. Regression line of the SMR trend of the 70-79 age group.

Figure 6.. Regression line of the SMR trend of the 80-89 age group.

Figure 7.. Regression line of the SMR trend of the 90+ age group.