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. 2025:47:e2025010.
doi: 10.4178/epih.e2025010. Epub 2025 Jan 27.

Preventable cancer cases and deaths attributable to deficit of physical activity in Korea from 2015 to 2030

Soseul Sung  1   2   3 , Sungji Moon  1   3   4 , Jihye An  5 , Jeehi Jung  6 , Hyeon Sook Lee  7 , Youjin Hong  1   3   8 , Sangjun Lee  1   3   8 , Woojin Lim  1   2   3 , Kyungsik Kim  1   3 , Inah Kim  9 , Jung Eun Lee  10 , Sun Ha Jee  11 , Aesun Shin  1   3   4   8 , Ji-Yeob Choi  2   3   12   13 , Sun-Seog Kweon  14 , Min-Ho Shin  14 , Sangmin Park  2   15 , Seungho Ryu  16 , Sun Young Yang  17 , Seung Ho Choi  17 , Jeongseon Kim  18 , Sang-Wook Yi  19 , Yoon-Jung Choi  18 , Jeong-Soo Im  20 , Hong Gwan Seo  18   20 , Sohee Park  11 , Kwang-Pil Ko  1   21 , Sue K Park  1   3   8
Affiliations

Preventable cancer cases and deaths attributable to deficit of physical activity in Korea from 2015 to 2030

Soseul Sung et al. Epidemiol Health. 2025.

Abstract

Objectives: This study aimed to determine the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of cancers using various calculation methods and to estimate the PAFs of cancer incidence and mortality resulting from deficit in physical activity (DPA) from 2015 to 2030, based on data on prevalence rates.

Methods: The PAF of cancer was estimated using a cohort study-based meta-analysis of relative risk (RR), national prevalence rates of DPA from 2000 to 2015, and national cancer statistics from 2015 to 2030, with a latency of 15 years.

Results: In 2015, DPA contributed to 909 cancer cases and 548 deaths, accounting for 0.42% and 0.68% of new cancer cases and deaths, respectively. By 2030, the PAF values are expected to increase to 1.31% of incidence and 1.80% of mortality, with a continual increase from 2015 to 2030. When the low metabolic equivalent of task (MET) criteria were selected, the PAF values decreased for both incidence and mortality. The PAF calculated with <900 MET-min/wk for the sex-specific MET criterion was higher than that calculated with <900 MET-min/wk for both incidence and mortality.

Conclusions: The risk of cancer associated with DPA is expected to rise in both male and female. Future research and strategies should emphasize the promotion of physical activity for cancer prevention, considering its significant implications for public health.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Exercise; Korea; Physical ativity; Population-attributable fraction.

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