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. 2025:47:e2025008.
doi: 10.4178/epih.e2025008. Epub 2025 Feb 27.

Preventable cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Korea from 2015 to 2030

Soseul Sung  1   2   3 , Jihye An  4 , Jeehi Jung  5 , Hyeon Sook Lee  6 , Sungji Moon  1   3   7 , Inah Kim  8 , Jung Eun Lee  9 , Aesun Shin  1   3   7   10 , Sun Ha Jee  11 , Sun-Seog Kweon  12 , Min-Ho Shin  12 , Sangmin Park  2   13 , Seungho Ryu  14 , Sun Young Yang  15 , Seung Ho Choi  15 , Jeongseon Kim  16 , Sang-Wook Yi  17 , Yoon-Jung Choi  16 , Youjin Hong  1   3   10 , Sangjun Lee  1   3   10 , Woojin Lim  1   2   3 , Kyungsik Kim  1   3 , Daehee Kang  1   3   10 , Keun-Young Yoo  1   18 , Sohee Park  11 , Jeong-Soo Im  19 , Hong Gwan Seo  16   19 , Hai-Rim Shin  20 , Kwang-Pil Ko  1   21 , Sue K Park  1   3   10
Affiliations

Preventable cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Korea from 2015 to 2030

Soseul Sung et al. Epidemiol Health. 2025.

Abstract

Objectives: Tobacco smoking is a major public health concern worldwide. This study aimed to assess its impact on cancer incidence and mortality by estimating the population attributable fraction (PAF) in the Korean population for 2015 and 2020 and by projecting future trends until 2030.

Methods: The Korean relative risk (RR) was calculated via a meta-analysis of RRs for individual cancers attributed to tobacco smoking, based on primary data analysis from the Korean Cohort Consortium. The PAF was estimated using the Levin formula with past and current prevalence rates and the number of cancer cases and deaths, assuming a 15-year latency period.

Results: The proportions of cancer cases and deaths in Korea attributable to tobacco smoking were similar to those calculated using Asian and global RRs for both male and female. In 2015 and 2020, tobacco smoking contributed to 14.32% and 13.17% of cancer cases and 21.70% and 20.69% of cancer deaths in adults, respectively. Among Koreans, smoking was responsible for 25.83% of new cancer cases in male in 2015, 23.49% in male in 2020, 1.46% in female in 2015, and 1.68% in female in 2020. In both years, smoking impacted mortality more strongly than incidence in Korean male and female (incidence in male: 25.83% and 23.49%; mortality in male: 32.09% and 30.41%; incidence in female: 1.46% and 1.68%; and mortality in female: 4.70% and 4.96%, respectively).

Conclusions: Tobacco smoking causes cancers and deaths in Korea, however, it is preventable. Effective control policies that consider trends and vulnerabilities among female are required.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Korea; Neoplasms; Population attributable fraction; Smoking.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare for this study.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Comparison of population attributable fraction (PAF) in cancer attributed to tobacco smoking when using different relative risks (RRs).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Changing trends of population attributable fraction (PAF) and attributable cancer cases and deaths (ACs) in cancer attributed to tobacco smoking in Korea, 2015 to 2030 (A) total, (B) male, and (C) female. Current and past rate means smoking prevalence rates. We calculated smoking prevalence and PAF values exclusively for male and female separately. %p, percentage point.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Changing trends of attributable cancer cases and deaths (ACs) in specific cancer attributed to tobacco smoking in Korea, 2015 to 2030. Attributable cancer cases in (A) total, (C) male and (E) female. Attributable cancer deaths in (B) total, (D) male, and (F) female. %p, percentage point.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
International comparison of population attributable fraction (PAF) attributed to tobacco smoking in (A) total, (B) male, and (C) female.
None
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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