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. 2025 Mar 12:23.
doi: 10.18332/tid/201966. eCollection 2025.

Global, regional, and national burden of tobacco-related neurological disorders from 1990 to 2021: Trends and future projections

Chenyang Zhang  1 , Zhihan An  1 , Jixuan Jiang  1 , Jingyi Ge  1 , Wanqiong Huang  1 , Jialin Pei  2 , Yiyao Liu  1 , Jiayu Yao  3 , Zirui Guo  3 , Xuanxi Liu  3 , Yanhui Cui  3
Affiliations

Global, regional, and national burden of tobacco-related neurological disorders from 1990 to 2021: Trends and future projections

Chenyang Zhang et al. Tob Induc Dis. .

Abstract

Introduction: Tobacco use is as a major public health concern around the world, adversely impacting quality of life. Our study aims to analyze the trends in the burden of tobacco-related neurological disorders (ND) at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021, as well as potential future trends.

Methods: We performed a secondary dataset analysis for the assessment of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, to explore the burden of tobacco-related ND. We also analyzed the associations between the burden of ND and factors such as age, gender, and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI).

Results: In 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) for neurological disorders were 0.50 per 100000 persons (95% UI: -0.15-1.98) and 11.25 per 100000 persons (95% UI: 1.36-34.36), respectively. Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) had a particularly significant impact on the burden of ND. However, the ASDR for Parkinson's disease was -8.38 per 100000 persons (95% UI: -10.72 - -6.20). The burden of disease was greater in men and older people, with substantial regional variation. While aging and population growth might contribute to the increase in DALYs for tobacco-related ND, epidemiological changes have the potential to reduce the burden. From 2022 to 2050, the BAPC model predicted a decline in the age-standardized rate (ASR) of DALYs and mortality for tobacco-related ND, globally.

Conclusions: Tobacco use increased the burden of ND such as ADOD and multiple sclerosis (MS), while reducing the burden of Parkinson's disease (PD). The burden of disease was disproportionately higher among older individuals and males, with significant disparities across nations and regions. Over the past 32 years, the burden of these diseases has gradually decreased, and this trend is expected to continue from 2022 to 2050.

Keywords: disability-adjusted life years; neurological disorders; tobacco; trends.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have completed and submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. The authors declare that they have no competing interests, financial or otherwise, related to the current work. All authors report that since the initial planning of the work, they received support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82200099), the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province for Excellent Young Scholars (2024JJ4076), the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (2022JJ40775), and the Innovation and Entrepreneurship for university students (S202410533405).

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Comparison of ASDR for tobacco-related neurological disorders in 1990 and 2021 from 204 countries and territories worldwide
Figure 2
Figure 2
Comparison of ASDR for tobacco-related Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias in 1990 and 2021 from 204 countries and territories worldwide
Figure 3
Figure 3
Comparison of ASDR for tobacco-related multiple sclerosis in 1990 and 2021 from 204 countries and territories worldwide
Figure 4
Figure 4
Comparison of ASDR for tobacco-related Parkinson’s disease in 1990 and 2021 from 204 countries and territories worldwide
Figure 5
Figure 5
Projections of ASDR from 2022 to 2050 based on the BAPC model: A) ASDR for tobacco-related neurological disorders; B) ASDR for tobacco-related Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias; C) ASDR for tobacco-related multiple sclerosis; and D) ASDR for tobacco-related Parkinson’s disease
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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