Global Burden of substance use disorders among adolescents during 1990-2021 and a forecast for 2022-2030: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2021

Abstract

Background: Despite the increasing attention paid to adolescents with substance use disorders (SUD), the financial investment does not appear to align with the escalating demand for its prevention and treatment services. This study aims to provide comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the burden of SUD among adolescents globally, regionally, and nationally over the last 32 years.

Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, we concentrated on adolescents aged 10 to 24 years with SUD. We conducted a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis and Nordpred model that encompasses age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) across various demographic factors, including regions, age groups, gender, and socio-demographic index (SDI), covering the period from 1990 to 2021.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, there was a significant decrease in the burden of adolescent SUD (EAPC = -1.17, 95%CI: -1.29 to -1.05). However, tremendously increasing trends of rate of DALYs were observed in high SDI regions (EAPC = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.11 to 1.32). Substantially increasing trend of burden attributable to adolescent SUD was detected in the United States of America (EAPC = 1.78, 95%CI: 1.64 to 1.92). Mongolia exhibited significantly increasing trend of ASPR (EAPC = 1.33, 95%CI: 1.10 to 1.56) and ASIR (EAPC = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.02 to 1.39). By 2030, the age-standardized DALYs rate of global adolescent SUD will decline from 88.49 to 79.27 per 100,000 individuals.

Conclusions: The burden of adolescent SUD shows diversity among SDI regions and countries. It ought to set a series of strict policies for adolescent substance control and precise financial management in prevention programs.

Keywords: Adolescents; Age-period-cohort; Global burden of disease; Substance use disorders.

Fig. 1

Spatial distribution of substance use disorders among adolescent (per 100,000 individuals) in 2021. a Age-standardized prevalence rate (b) Age-standardized incidence rate (c) Age-standardized DALY rate

Fig. 2

Age-standardized DALYs rate for substance use disorders in adolescents for 21 GBD regions and 204 countries/territories from 1990 to 2021. a Age-standardized DALYs rate by 21 regions; (b) Age-standardized DALYs rate by 204 countries

Fig. 3

Projected age-standardized rates and number of prevalence, incidence, and DALYs attributable to the substance use disorders in global adolescents from 1990 to 2030. a Age-standardized prevalence number; (b) Age-standardized prevalence raten; (c) Age-standardized incidence number; (d) Age-standardized incidence rate; (e) Age-standardized DALYs number; (f) Age-standardized DALYs rate

Fig. 4

`Projected numbers and rates of age-standardized DALYs attributable to adolescent substance use disorders from 1990 to 2030. a Age-standardized DALYs number of United States; (b) Age-standardized DALYs rate of United States; (c) Age-standardized DALYs number of Mongolia; (d) Age-standardized DALYs rate of Mongolia; (e) Age-standardized DALYs number of Iran (Islamic Republic of); (f) Age-standardized DALYs rate of Iran (Islamic Republic of); (g) Age-standardized DALYs number of India; (h) Age-standardized DALYs rate of India; (i) Age-standardized DALYs number of China; (j) Age-standardized DALYs rate of China