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. 2025 Mar 18;25(1):1051.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-21960-9.

Global trend and disparity in the burden of thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2049: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Ye-Xin Chen #  1 , Han-Zhang Hong #  1 , Zi-Heng Gao  1 , Yu-Xin Hu  1 , Ling-Zi Yao  2 , Jiang-Teng Liu  1 , Yan Zhao  1 , Gai-Weng Cui  1 , Dan-Dan Mao  3 , Jin-Xi Zhao  4
Affiliations

Global trend and disparity in the burden of thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2049: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Ye-Xin Chen et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Obesity and overweight are increasingly recognized as significant risk factors for the incidence and progression of thyroid cancer (TC). However, its epidemiological investigation including the disease burden and its trends remains insufficiently explored. This research aimed to reveal and predict the disease burden of thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index (TC-HBMI), which would offer significant references for focused prevention and disease management methods.

Methods: The study extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). Deaths case, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) case, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) were obtained from GBD 2021 to assess the global burden from 1990 to 2021. Decomposition analysis explored the driving factors to TC-HBMI. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in ASMR and ASDR of TC-HBMI was determined to analyze temporal trends by Joinpoint regression analysis. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was utilized to project the disease burden untill 2049.

Results: The global deaths and DALYs of TC-HBMI were 5,255 and 144,955 in 2021, exhibiting a continuous growth trend over the past 32 years. The ASMR and ASDR for males showed faster growth. The disease burden was greatest among middle-aged and older populations, while the rapidly increase in adolescents should not be overlooked. High socio-demographic index (SDI) regions and Latin America each recorded the highest disease burden within their respective categories of SDI regions and GBD regions. Additionally, Predictive models indicated a gradual upward trend from 2022 to 2049.

Conclusion: The study revealed that the global disease burden of TC-HBMI had continuously increased from 1990 to 2021, and it was predicted to escalate until 2049. The findings emphasize the need for more detailed TC screening and weight loss measures tailored to specific regions and populations, which would benefit efforts to curb the projected rise in TC-HBMI deaths and DALYs.

Keywords: Disability-adjusted life years; Deaths; Global Burden of Disease Study 2021; High body-mass index; Thyroid cancer.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: Not applicable. Consent to participate: In accordance with ethical standards, all participants involved in this study provided their informed consent to participate. Confidentiality and privacy were guaranteed throughout the research process. Participants were also made aware of their right to withdraw from the study at any time without any negative consequences. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Cases and ASR of TC-HBMI by different sexes in 2021. Notes: (A) deaths, (B) DALYs. TC-HBMI, thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index; DALYs, the Disability-Adjusted Life Years; ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; ASDR, age-standardized DALYs rate
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Trends of TC-HBMI by different sexes (A. deaths, B. DALYs), SDI Regions (C. deaths, D. DALYs) from 1990 to 2021, calculated by Joinpoint regression. TC-HBMI, thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index; DALYs, the Disability-Adjusted Life Years; AAPC, average annual percent change; APC, average annual percent change
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Decomposition analysis in deaths (A) and DALYs (B) of TC-HBMI from 1990 to 2021 by SDI regions and GBD regions. TC-HBMI, thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index; DALYs, the Disability-Adjusted Life Years; SDI, socio demographic index
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Global burden in 2021 and trends from 1990 to 2021 of TC-HBMI by different countries/territories. Notes: (A) ASMR, (B) ASDR, (C) AAPC of ASMR, (D)AAPC of ASDR. TC-HBMI, thyroid cancer attributable to high body mass index; DALYs, the Disability-Adjusted Life Years; ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; ASDR, age-standardized DALYs rate; AAPC, average annual percent change
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
The proportion of deaths and DALYs of TC-HBMI among all deaths and DALYs of TC and a comparison of the AAPC from 1990 to 2021 of deaths and DALYs of the above two. (A) by ages, (B) by SDI regions and sexes, (C) by GBD regions, (D) a comparison of the AAPC by ages and sexes, (E) a comparison of the AAPC by SDI regions and GBD regions. TC-HBMI, thyroid cancer attributable to high-body mass index; DALYs, the Disability-Adjusted Life Years; AAPC, average annual percent change; SDI, socio demographic index
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Projection of TC-HBMI and TC by different sexes from 2022 to 2049, calculated by Bayesian age-period-cohort model. A deaths, B DALYs. TC-HBMI, thyroid cancer attributable to high body-mass index; DALYs, the Disability-Adjusted Life Years
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