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. 2025 Feb;83(2):1-7.
doi: 10.1055/s-0045-1804924. Epub 2025 Mar 19.

Predictors of poor outcome in the acute phase after a first-ever stroke in a population-based study in Matão, Brazil

Cesar Minelli  1   2 , Esther Maria Langhi Chiozzini  2 , Liliana Tiene Ujikawa  2 , Geraldo Cassio Dos Reis  1 , Millene Rodrigues Camilo  1 , Octavio Marques Pontes-Neto  1
Affiliations

Predictors of poor outcome in the acute phase after a first-ever stroke in a population-based study in Matão, Brazil

Cesar Minelli et al. Arq Neuropsiquiatr. 2025 Feb.

Abstract

Background: The data on predictors of poor outcomes for stroke patients in middle-income countries are lacking.

Objective: To identify in the acute phase after a first-ever stroke (FES) predictors of a poor outcome within 3 months and 1 year in a population-based study in the town of Matão, state of São Paulo, Brazil.

Methods: We prospectively investigated the characteristics of patients with FES in Matão, from a prospective study, in a population-based stroke registry, from 2015 to 2020. Poor outcome was defined as a modified Rankin scale (mRS) score of 3 to 6, assessed at 3 months and 1 year of follow-up. The association between predictors and poor outcome was analyzed by logistic regression analysis.

Results: Of the 783 patients, the final sample consisted of 378 subjects for analysis. The mean age was 69.2(± 14.3) years, and 43.1% of patients were female. At 3 months and 1 year after a FES, 50.4% and 47.1% of stroke patients were classified as poor prognosis, respectively. Older age, female gender, hemiplegia, aphasia, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and comorbidities present in the acute phase were the predictors associated with a poor outcome.

Conclusion: Non-modified and potentially modified predictors increase the risk of a poor FES prognosis in a population-based study from a middle-income country. Interventions focusing on these target populations and improving access to prevention and stroke management in the acute phase are necessary.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

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