Age-Dependent Assortativeness in Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Oral Transmission in the United States: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis
- PMID: 40132653
- PMCID: PMC12247797
- DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf157
Age-Dependent Assortativeness in Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Oral Transmission in the United States: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis
Abstract
Background: Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) is a highly infectious, globally prevalent lifelong infection. Despite advancements in understanding its epidemiology, the assortativeness in the age-dependent transmission patterns remains unclear. This study aimed to estimate the degree of assortativeness in age group mixing for oral-to-oral HSV-1 transmission within the United States (US) population.
Methods: An age-structured mathematical model was employed to describe HSV-1 transmission dynamics in the US population, incorporating its different modes of transmission. The model was fitted to nationally representative HSV-1 data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) spanning 1976-2016 using a Bayesian inference framework. The degree of assortativeness in age group mixing was calibrated on a scale from 0 (no age group bias in close-proximity interactions) to 1 (exclusive mixing within the same age group).
Results: The model demonstrated robust fits to US demographics, age-specific HSV-1 prevalence, and temporal trends in both HSV-1 prevalence and ever-symptomatic HSV-1 genital herpes prevalence. The degree of assortativeness was estimated as 0.87 (95% credible interval [CrI], .64-.99) for children, indicating strong age-based assortativity, and as 0.04 (95% CrI, .004-.10) for adults, indicating weak age-based assortativity.
Conclusions: Most HSV-1 infections among children are acquired from peers within their own age group, whereas adults acquire HSV-1 infections from a broad range of age groups.
Keywords: Bayesian framework; assortativeness; genital herpes; mathematical model; oral herpes.
© The Author(s) 2025. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.
Conflict of interest statement
Potential conflicts of interest. All authors: No reported conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed.
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