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. 2025 Jun:96:102802.
doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2025.102802. Epub 2025 Mar 26.

Trends and cross-country inequalities in the global, regional, and national burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer from 1990 to 2021, along with the predictions for 2035

Wen Bao  1 , Lichun Qiao  2 , Miaoqian Li  2 , Guoming Shi  3 , Liang Liu  4
Affiliations
Free article

Trends and cross-country inequalities in the global, regional, and national burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer from 1990 to 2021, along with the predictions for 2035

Wen Bao et al. Cancer Epidemiol. 2025 Jun.
Free article

Abstract

Background: The global burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is on the rise.

Methods: The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was also employed to project disease trends for the next 15 years.

Results: In 2021, new GBTC cases observed globally amounted to 216,768, with 171,961 mortality and 3732,121 DALYs. From 1990-2021, a notable surge was recorded in the incidence of GBTC by 101 %, mortality by 74.26 %, and DALYs by 60.45 %. Regions with superior Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) reflected elevated incidence and mortality rates. However, a significant decrease was noticed in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Despite a reduction in health disparities among countries, differences remain. Prognostications predict a continual decline in global ASIR and ASMR through 2035.

Conclusions: The study found that the burden of GBTC in incidences, mortalities, and DALYs has been on the rise, with some correlation with socio-economic development.

Keywords: Disability-adjusted life-years; Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer; Global burden of diseases study; Incidence; Mortality.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that: the work described has not been published previously except in the form of a preprint, an abstract, a published lecture, academic thesis or registered report. See our policy on multiple, redundant or concurrent publication. the article is not under consideration for publication elsewhere. the article's publication is approved by all authors and tacitly or explicitly by the responsible authorities where the work was carried out. if accepted, the article will not be published elsewhere in the same form, in English or in any other language, including electronically, without the written consent of the copyright-holder.

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