Predictive ability of choledocholithiasis indicators. A prospective evaluation

Abstract

To assess the predictive ability of various indicators of common bile duct calculi, 457 patients undergoing cholecystectomy for gallstone disease were prospectively screened for the presence of 11 predefined criteria of possible choledocholithiasis. The predictive ability of the criteria, individually and in combinations, was determined. For all criteria, except a history of pancreatitis, a significantly increased incidence of choledocholithiasis was found. The number of positive criteria correlated positively with the frequency of common bile duct calculi. The negative predictive value and sensitivity of the total set of criteria were 98% and 89.5%, respectively. Following common duct exploration, the number of complications and the duration of postoperative hospitalization were significantly increased as compared with simple cholecystectomy. Peroperative cholangiography with cholecystectomy is recommended in all patients, with one or more criteria of possible choledocholithiasis. Routine peroperative cholangiography in patients with no positive criteria does not seem to be necessary.