The interactions among factors associated with the risk of lung cancer among diabetes patients: a survival tree analysis

Abstract

Past epidemiological studies demonstrated mixed findings on the association between diabetes and lung cancer. Given the possible links between diabetes, smoking, and respiratory diseases, this study aims to examine the interaction patterns among factors associated with the risk of lung cancer among diabetes patients. A territory-wide retrospective cohort study was performed using electronic health records of Hong Kong. Patients who received diabetes care in general outpatient clinics between 2010 and 2019 without cancer history were included and followed up until December 2019. Conditional inference survival tree was applied to examine the interaction patterns among factors associated with the risk of lung cancer. A total of 385,521 patients were included. During a median follow-up of 6.2 years, 3395 developed lung cancer. Age emerged as primary factor in differentiating the risk of lung cancer. Conditional on age ( ≤ 64 vs >64 years), smoking appeared as subsequent dominant risk factor within each subpopulation. Among old smokers aged >64 years characterized by long duration of diabetes (median: 6-8 years), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) emerged as key risk factor. Six distinct subgroups of diabetes patients with different risk levels of lung cancer according to age, smoking, metformin use, and COPD status were identified. Findings of the study suggest the interaction patterns among age, smoking, and COPD on the risk of lung cancer among diabetes patients, providing targets for public health interventions.

Fig. 1. Survival tree diagram for lung cancer incidence among diabetes patients.

COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Fig. 2. Cumulative lung cancer incidence across distinct subgroups of diabetes patients.

COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.