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. 2025 Apr 9;20(4):e0321201.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0321201. eCollection 2025.

Associations between different measures of SARS-CoV-2 infection status and subsequent economic inactivity: A pooled analysis of five longitudinal surveys linked to healthcare records

Richard J Shaw  1 , Olivia K L Hamilton  1 , Rebecca Rhead  2   3 , Richard J Silverwood  2 , Jacques Wels  4   5 , Jingmin Zhu  6 , Giorgio Di Gessa  6 , Ruth C E Bowyer  7   8 , Bettina Moltrecht  2 , Michael J Green  1   9 , Evangelia Demou  1 , Serena Pattaro  10 , Paola Zaninotto  6 , Andy Boyd  11 , Felix Greaves  12 , Nishi Chaturvedi  4 , George B Ploubidis  2 , Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi  1
Affiliations

Associations between different measures of SARS-CoV-2 infection status and subsequent economic inactivity: A pooled analysis of five longitudinal surveys linked to healthcare records

Richard J Shaw et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Introduction: Following the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of people became economically inactive in the UK. We investigated the association between coronavirus infection and subsequent economic inactivity among people employed pre-pandemic, and whether this association varied between self-report versus healthcare recorded infection status.

Methods: We pooled data from five longitudinal studies (1970 British Cohort Study, English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, 1958 National Child Development Study, Next Steps, and Understanding Society), in two databases: the UK Longitudinal Linkage Collaboration (UKLLC), which links study data to NHS England records, and the UK Data Service (UKDS), which does not. The study population were aged 25-65 years between April 2020 to March 2021. The outcome was economic inactivity measured at the time of the last survey (November 2020 to March 2021). The exposures were COVID-19 status, indicated by a positive SARS-CoV-2 test in NHS records (UKLLC sample only), or by self-reported measures of coronavirus infection (both samples). Logistic regression models estimated odds ratios (ORs) adjusting for potential confounders including sociodemographic variables and pre-pandemic health.

Results: Within the UKLLC sample (N = 8,174), both a positive SARS-CoV-2 test in NHS records (5.9% of the sample; OR 1.08, 95%CI 0.68-1.73) and self-reported positive tests (6.5% of the sample; OR 1.07, 95%CI 0.68-1.69), were marginally and non-significantly associated with economic inactivity (5.3% of the sample) in adjusted analyses. Within the larger UKDS sample (n = 13,881) reliant on self-reported ascertainment of infection (6.4% of the sample), the coefficient indicated a null relationship (OR 0.98, 95%CI 0.68-1.40) with economic inactivity (5.0% of sample).

Conclusions: Among people employed pre-pandemic, testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was not associated with increased economic inactivity, although we could not exclude small effects. Ascertaining infection through healthcare records or self-report made little difference to results. However, processes related to record linkage may introduce small biases.

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Conflict of interest statement

We have read the journal's policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: SVK was co-chair of the Scottish Government’s Expert Reference Group on Ethnicity and COVID-19 and a member of the UK Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies subgroup on ethnicity. FG was employed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Odds ratios for economic inactivity and non-employment by COVID-19 status in four subsamples of five UK Longitudinal Population Studies.
Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, household composition, ethnicity (UKLLC only), longitudinal study, country (UKDS only), shielding status, self-rated health, NS-SEC, keyworker status and education.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Update of

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