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. 2025 Apr 14;25(1):684.
doi: 10.1186/s12885-025-14056-5.

Nomogram model for predicting the long-term prognosis of cervical cancer patients: a population-based study in Mato Grosso, Brazil

Sancho Pedro Xavier  1 , Noemi Dreyer Galvão  2   3 , Marco Aurélio Bertúlio das Neves  2   3 , Kátia Moreira da Silva  2 , Adila de Queiroz Neves Almeida  2 , Ageo Mario Cândido da Silva  2   3
Affiliations

Nomogram model for predicting the long-term prognosis of cervical cancer patients: a population-based study in Mato Grosso, Brazil

Sancho Pedro Xavier et al. BMC Cancer. .

Abstract

Background: Cervical cancer (CC) is the third most common cancer among women worldwide and the second most prevalent neoplasm in Mato Grosso, Brazil, in 2020. This study aimed to analyze overall survival (OS), identify prognostic factors, and develop a nomogram to predict the long-term prognosis of CC patients using population-based data from Mato Grosso, Brazil.

Methods: Integrated data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Population-Based Cancer Registry (RCBP) were used for patients diagnosed with CC between 2001 and 2018. Group differences were analyzed using the Log-rank test, and survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were applied to identify predictors of OS. A nomogram was developed to predict OS at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. The accuracy of the model was assessed using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration plots.

Results: The median follow-up time was 12 years (range: 6.28 - 17.1). The OS rates at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years were 95.4%, 91.3%, 89.9%, and 88.3%, respectively. Age, histological type, and disease stage were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. The C-index for OS was 0.869, and the areas under the ROC curve for 1, 3, 5, and 10 years were 0.910, 0.897, 0.895, and 0.884, respectively, indicating good discrimination. The nomogram demonstrated good agreement with the observed survival rates.

Conclusion: The developed nomogram predicts OS for CC patients at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, showing good concordance with the observed survival rates and serving as a useful tool for guiding personalized interventions. Notably, disease staging and histopathological type were the most significant prognostic factors for OS.

Keywords: Cervical cancer; Mato Grosso; Nomogram; Overall survival; Prognostic factors.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethical consideration and consent to participate: The datasets used in this study were obtained from the Mato Grosso State Health Department (SES-MT) through a formal request. Although the RCBP and SIM systems provide publicly accessible data, identifying variables such as the patient’s name, date of birth, and mother’s name were used exclusively to integrate the databases and were permanently removed after the process, ensuring participant privacy and anonymity. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of UFMT (approval number 4.858.521, issued on July 20, 2021) and conducted in accordance with the ethical principles outlined in the Declaration of Helsinki, particularly regarding privacy, confidentiality, and the ethical use of data. Given the secondary nature of the data and the absence of direct contact with participants, the need for informed consent was formally waived by the Committee, in compliance with both national and international regulations. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Nomogram model for predicting 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates in CC patients
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
ROC Curves for 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-Year OS Predictions from the Nomogram Model. The ROC curve illustrates survival predictions for patients at (A) 1 year, (B) 3 years, (C) 5 years, and (D) 10 years. The false positive rate (FPR) is shown on the X-axis, and the true positive rate (TPR) is shown on the Y-axis
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Calibration plots for the nomogram model, illustrating the comparison between predicted probabilities and actual observed probabilities for 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS in patients with CC (A: 1 year, B: 3 years, C: 5 years, D: 10 years)
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