Assessing the Potential Distribution of Pseudoechthistatus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in China Under Climate Change Using Species Distribution Models

Abstract

Climate change will lead to changes in biological ecosystems, which may affect the geographic distribution of Pseudoechthistatus and thus alter the extent and spatial pattern of its habitat. Pseudoechthistatus plays an important role in biodiversity and has significant ecological value. This study utilized an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the predicted distribution of Pseudoechthistatus in China for the current and future (2050s and 2070s). The results show that the MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy with AUC values higher than 0.97 for both training and testing. The most influential factors contributing to the distribution of Pseudoechthistatus were temperature seasonality (Bio4) and isothermality (Bio3), accounting for 38.8% and 28.2%, respectively. Furthermore, southern China remains a region of high suitability for Pseudoechthistatus species diversity. However, the Beijing climate center climate system model (BCC-CSM2-MR) predicts a decrease in suitable areas for Pseudoechthistatus, while the model for interdisciplinary research on climate (MIROC6) predicts an increase in medium and low suitable areas for Pseudoechthistatus. Additionally, future climate change will significantly alter its distribution pattern, with Pseudoechthistatus predicted to decrease its suitable area by 6.64%-28.01% under the BCC-CSM2-MR model and increase its suitable area by 6.14%-18.61% under the MIROC6 model. The results show that the MaxEnt model can improve the understanding of the geographical distribution of Pseudoechthistatus in the context of climate change and provide a scientific basis for the identification of potentially suitable habitats and the development of stable suitable areas for conservation.

Keywords: MaxEnt; Pseudoechthistatus; biodiversity conservation; climate change; habitat suitability.

FIGURE 1

Occurrence records of Pseudoechthistatus in China.

FIGURE 2

Habitat suitability of Pseudoechthistatus in China under current climate scenarios.

FIGURE 3

Habitat suitability of Pseudoechthistatus in China under future BCC‐CSM2‐MR climate model scenarios. Note: (A) SSP1‐2.6‐2050s; (B) SSP1‐2.6‐2070s; (C) SSP2‐4.5‐2050s; (D) SSP2‐4.5‐2070s; (E) SSP3‐7.0‐2050s; (F) SSP3‐7.0‐2070s; (G) SSP5‐8.5‐2050s; (H) SSPSSP5‐8.5‐2070s.

FIGURE 4

Habitat suitability of Pseudoechthistatus in China under future MIROC6 climate model scenarios. Note: (A) SSP1‐2.6‐2050s; (B) SSP1‐2.6‐2070s; (C) SSP2‐4.5‐2050s; (D) SSP2‐4.5‐2070s; (E) SSP3‐7.0‐2050s; (F) SSP3‐7.0‐2070s; (G) SSP5‐8.5‐2050s; (H) SSPSSP5‐8.5‐2070s.

FIGURE 5

Potential distributional spatial movement paths of Pseudoechthistatus in China under different climate scenarios in the future. Note: The gray line represents the migration route of the center of distribution of Pseudoechthistatus in the BCC‐CSM2‐MR SSP1‐2.6 scenario; the red line represents the migration route of the center of distribution of Pseudoechthistatus in the BCC‐CSM2‐MR SSP2‐4.5 scenario; the green line represents the migration route of the center of distribution of Pseudoechthistatus in the BCC‐CSM2‐MR SSP3‐7.0 scenario; the light blue line represents the migration route of the center of distribution of Pseudoechthistatus in the BCC‐CSM2‐MR SSP5‐8.5 scenario; the dark pink line represents the migration route of the center of distribution of Pseudoechthistatus in the MIROC SSP1‐2.6 scenario; the orange line represents the migration route of the center of distribution Pseudoechthistatus in the MIROC SSP2‐4.5 scenario; the dark blue line represents the migration route of the center of distribution of Pseudoechthistatus in the MIROC SSP3‐7.0 scenario; the yellow line represents the migration route of the center of distribution of Pseudoechthistatus in the MIROC SSP5‐8.5 scenario.

FIGURE 6

The multivariate environmental similarity surfaces (MESS) of Pseudoechthistatus in China under the future BCC‐CSM2‐MR climate model. Note: (A) SSP1‐2.6‐2050s; (B) SSP1‐2.6‐2070s; (C) SSP2‐4.5‐2050s; (D) SSP2‐4.5‐2070s; (E) SSP3‐7.0‐2050s; (F) SSP3‐7.0‐2070s; (G) SSP5‐8.5‐2050s; (H) SSPSSP5‐8.5‐2070s.

FIGURE 7

The multivariate environmental similarity surfaces (MESS) of Pseudoechthistatus in China under the future MIROC6 climate model. Note: (A) SSP1‐2.6‐2050s; (B) SSP1‐2.6‐2070s; (C) SSP2‐4.5‐2050s; (D) SSP2‐4.5‐2070s; (E) SSP3‐7.0‐2050s; (F) SSP3‐7.0‐2070s; (G) SSP5‐8.5‐2050s; (H) SSPSSP5‐8.5‐2070s.