Disease Burden of Neck Pain in China from 1990 to 2021 and Its Prediction for 2042: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract

Purpose: This study, aimed to report the rates and trends of the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability caused by neck pain in the general population of China from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life Years (DALYs) from 2022 to 2042.

Methods: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. The annual percentage change (APC) and average APC between 1990 and 2021 were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates between 2022 and 2042.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of neck pain in China showed a clear upward trend, with age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), and DALYs rates being significantly higher in females than in males. Especially in terms of DALYs, Aging has had the largest impact, contributing 61.88% of the increase, while population growth has accounted for 32.43%. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence and prevalence of neck pain in China increased gradually from 2000 to 2021. Data from 2021 showed that individuals aged 45-59 years are the most affected by neck pain, regardless of sex. The prediction results of the ARIMA model indicate that China's ASIR and ASPR for neck pain are projected to continue increasing over the next 20 years.

Conclusion: Neck pain is a serious public health problem in the general Chinese population. This may be related to changes in people's lifestyles and work patterns due to improvements in societal well-being and technology. Raising awareness of the risk factors for neck pain in the general population could help reduce the future burden of neck disorders, and neck pain should be a priority for future research on prevention and therapy.

Keywords: ARIMA models; Burden of disease; disability-adjusted life years; incidence; joinpoint regression analysis; neck pain; prevalence.

Figure 1

Age-standardized Incidence (per 100,000 population) and number of prevalent cases of females and males in China from 1990 to 2021.

Figure 2

Age-standardized prevalence (per 100000 population) and number of prevalent cases of females and males in China from 1990 to 2021.

Figure 3

(A) 2021 Age-specific incidence number. (B) 2021 Age-standardized incidence rate. (C) 2021 Age-specific prevalence number. (D) 2021 Age-standardized prevalence rate.

Figure 4

Joinpoint regression analysis of the sex-specific age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence rate for NP in China from 1990 to 2019. (A) Age-standardized incidence rate for females. (B) Age-standardized incidence rate for males. (C) Age-standardized incidence rate for both. (D) Age-standardized prevalence rate for females. (E) Age-standardized prevalence rate for males. (F) Age-standardized prevalence rate for both.

Figure 5

Changes in neck pain DALYs according to population-level determinants of population growth, ageing, and epidemiological change from 1990 to 2021 in China. The black dot represents the overall value of change contributed by all three components. The magnitude of a positive value indicates a corresponding increase in neck pain DALYs attributed to the component.

Figure 6

Forecast of neck pain incidence and prevalence rates (per 100,000) from 2020–2030 through ARIMA. (A) Neck pain incidence in both individuals; (B) Neck pain incidence in male individuals; (C) Neck pain incidence in female individuals; (D) neck pain prevalence in both individuals; (E) neck pain prevalence in male individuals; (F) neck pain prevalence in female individuals.