Trends in Road Traffic Crash Fatalities in Belgrade: A Twelve-Year Retrospective Analysis (2010-2021)

doi:10.1007/s10935-025-00846-x

. 2025 Apr 16.

doi: 10.1007/s10935-025-00846-x. Online ahead of print.

Trends in Road Traffic Crash Fatalities in Belgrade: A Twelve-Year Retrospective Analysis (2010-2021)

Slavisa Zagorac^{1

2}, Ljiljana Markovic-Denic³, Vladimir Nikolic⁴

Affiliations

¹ Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
² Clinic for Orthopedic Surgery and Traumatology, University Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia.
³ Institute of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
⁴ Institute of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia. nikolicvladimir32@gmail.com.

PMID: 40238034
DOI: 10.1007/s10935-025-00846-x

Trends in Road Traffic Crash Fatalities in Belgrade: A Twelve-Year Retrospective Analysis (2010-2021)

Slavisa Zagorac et al. J Prev (2022). 2025.

. 2025 Apr 16.

doi: 10.1007/s10935-025-00846-x. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Slavisa Zagorac^{1

2}, Ljiljana Markovic-Denic³, Vladimir Nikolic⁴

Affiliations

¹ Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
² Clinic for Orthopedic Surgery and Traumatology, University Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia.
³ Institute of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
⁴ Institute of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia. nikolicvladimir32@gmail.com.

PMID: 40238034
DOI: 10.1007/s10935-025-00846-x

Abstract

The road traffic crashes (RTCs) are one of the significant public health challenges. According to the latest WHO data, about 1.2 million people die as a result of RTCs, making RTCs the main cause of death in many countries. This study assesses road traffic crash (RTC) fatalities in Belgrade, Serbia from 2010 to 2021, utilizing data from the Belgrade Police Department and employing joinpoint regression analysis. Over the period, 1,264 fatalities were recorded with a peak in 2011 (136 deaths) and a reduction to 76 by 2021, indicating a significant annual decrease of -4.4% in mortality rates. Men made up 72.7% of the deaths, with pedestrians being the most affected group (41.0%). There was a notable decline in fatalities among most demographic groups, particularly pedestrians and young adults aged 26-35. The findings highlight a downward trend in RTC mortality, yet the numbers remain concerning. Enhanced enforcement of existing road safety regulations, such as mandatory seat belt use, and targeted measures for vulnerable groups like pedestrians and seniors are recommended to further reduce fatalities.

Keywords: Mortality trends; Road traffic crashes; Traffic injury; Urban safety.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethical Approval: Due to the use of an existing database that did not hold the personal data of individuals (first and last name and social security number). The entire project was approved by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, No 175095 and has confirmed that no ethical approval is required. Consent: None. Competing Interests: The authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.

References

1. Ali, Q., Yaseen, M. R., & Khan, M. T. I. (2019a). Road traffic fatalities and its determinants in high-income countries: A continent-wise comparison. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(19), 19915–19929. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05410-9 - DOI - PubMed
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1. Andersen, P. T., Loncarevic, N., Damgaard, M. B., Jacobsen, M. W., Bassioni-Stamenic, F., & Karlsson, E., L (2022). Public health, surveillance policies and actions to prevent community spread of COVID-19 in Denmark, Serbia and Sweden. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 50(6), 711–729. https://doi.org/10.1177/14034948211056215 - DOI - PubMed
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1. Burzyńska, M., & Pikala, M. (2021). Decreasing trends in road traffic mortality in Poland: A twenty-year analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(19), 10411. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph181910411 - DOI - PubMed - PMC

Grants and funding

17075/17075

[1] Ali, Q., Yaseen, M. R., & Khan, M. T. I. (2019a). Road traffic fatalities and its determinants in high-income countries: A continent-wise comparison. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(19), 19915–19929. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05410-9 - DOI - PubMed

[2] Ali, Q., Yaseen, M. R., & Khan, M. T. I. (2019a). Road traffic fatalities and its determinants in high-income countries: A continent-wise comparison. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(19), 19915–19929. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-05410-9 - DOI - PubMed

[3] Ali, Q., Yaseen, M. R., & Khan, M. T. I. (2019b). The causality of road traffic fatalities with its determinants in upper middle income countries: A continent-wide comparison. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 119, 301–312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.12.002 - DOI

[4] Ali, Q., Yaseen, M. R., & Khan, M. T. I. (2019b). The causality of road traffic fatalities with its determinants in upper middle income countries: A continent-wide comparison. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 119, 301–312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.12.002 - DOI

[5] Andersen, P. T., Loncarevic, N., Damgaard, M. B., Jacobsen, M. W., Bassioni-Stamenic, F., & Karlsson, E., L (2022). Public health, surveillance policies and actions to prevent community spread of COVID-19 in Denmark, Serbia and Sweden. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 50(6), 711–729. https://doi.org/10.1177/14034948211056215 - DOI - PubMed

[6] Andersen, P. T., Loncarevic, N., Damgaard, M. B., Jacobsen, M. W., Bassioni-Stamenic, F., & Karlsson, E., L (2022). Public health, surveillance policies and actions to prevent community spread of COVID-19 in Denmark, Serbia and Sweden. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 50(6), 711–729. https://doi.org/10.1177/14034948211056215 - DOI - PubMed

[7] Antić, B., Vujanić, M., Lipovac, K., & Pešić, D. (2011). Estimation of the traffic accidents costs in Serbia by using dominant costs model. Transport, 26(4), 433–440. https://doi.org/10.3846/16484142.2011.635425 - DOI

[8] Antić, B., Vujanić, M., Lipovac, K., & Pešić, D. (2011). Estimation of the traffic accidents costs in Serbia by using dominant costs model. Transport, 26(4), 433–440. https://doi.org/10.3846/16484142.2011.635425 - DOI

[9] Burzyńska, M., & Pikala, M. (2021). Decreasing trends in road traffic mortality in Poland: A twenty-year analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(19), 10411. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph181910411 - DOI - PubMed - PMC

[10] Burzyńska, M., & Pikala, M. (2021). Decreasing trends in road traffic mortality in Poland: A twenty-year analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(19), 10411. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph181910411 - DOI - PubMed - PMC

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Trends in Road Traffic Crash Fatalities in Belgrade: A Twelve-Year Retrospective Analysis (2010-2021)

Affiliations

Trends in Road Traffic Crash Fatalities in Belgrade: A Twelve-Year Retrospective Analysis (2010-2021)

Authors

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Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

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Abstract

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