Forecasting the Global Economic and Health Burden of COPD From 2025 Through 2050

Abstract

Background: Studies have reported estimates of the economic and health burden of COPD. They have been limited largely to current-day estimates or relatively short-term future projections.

Research question: How will the regional and global economic and health burden of COPD evolve from 2025 to 2050, considering trends in COPD risk factors and an expanding population?

Study design and methods: To project the economic and health burden of COPD to 2050, an open cohort Markov model was developed. COPD costs were stratified by age, sex, and smoking status, and distributions of COPD severity grades were modeled based on global trends in smoking status, household air pollution, particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter, and ozone. Direct costs, indirect costs, and the number of COPD exacerbations were projected to 2050. Data on the historic economic and health burden of COPD were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, World Health Organization, and a recent meta-analysis. COPD risk factor data were obtained from the GBD database.

Results: By 2050, the global direct costs attributable to COPD are projected to be $24.35 trillion cumulatively ($3.89 trillion in 2025). Global indirect costs are estimated to be $15.43 trillion cumulatively by 2050 ($2.50 trillion in 2025), and 15.60 billion COPD exacerbations are projected to occur within that same period (2.28 billion in 2025).

Interpretation: To mitigate the substantial projected economic and health burden of COPD, it is essential to focus on prevention by reducing risk factors such as smoking and air pollution. Additionally, health care policy reforms can improve access to effective treatments, and innovative approaches can enhance patient outcomes.

Keywords: COPD; direct medical costs; economic burden; exacerbations; health burden; indirect costs; projections.