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. 2025 Apr 21;25(1):1469.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-22746-9.

How to assess the severity of bronchiolitis epidemics? Application of the Moving Epidemic Method in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France from 2017 to 2023

Caroline Couturier  1 , Pascal Vilain  2 , Lindsay S Cooley  1 , Laurent Filleul  1
Affiliations

How to assess the severity of bronchiolitis epidemics? Application of the Moving Epidemic Method in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France from 2017 to 2023

Caroline Couturier et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: In France, early detection of bronchiolitis epidemics relies on a multi-source surveillance system. However, this system is unable to measure epidemic severity in real time. Such information would enable faster alerts to decision-makers and medical facilities, allowing healthcare provision to be adapted more effectively. This additional information would provide healthcare decision-makers and care structures to be alerted more quickly and to adapt their healthcare provision in a reactive way. In this context, we conducted a study to assess the severity of bronchiolitis epidemics in children under two years of age, from 2017/18 to 2022/23, in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France.

Methods: The Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) was used to assess the severity of bronchiolitis epidemics, based on three indicators, obtained from three data sources: (1) virus transmissibility, using data from the SOS Medecins network; (2) impact on the hospital system, assessed via emergency departments (ED) data and (3) gravity, using hospital data. Epidemic thresholds and intensity levels were determined by estimating the parameters of MEM.

Results: The 2020/21 epidemic was delayed and less severe compared to preceding seasons (2017-2020) across all indicators. In contrast, the 2021/22 and 2022/23 epidemics began early, with prolonged durations. Notably, the 2022/23 epidemic was particularly severe in terms of its impact on the hospital system.

Conclusions: The intensity of bronchiolitis epidemics in Nouvelle-Aquitaine (2017-2023) was assessed using MEM. This method is a simple, rapid and effective tool for guiding public health interventions.

Keywords: Bronchiolitis; Epidemic; Moving epidemic method; Severity assessment.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: According to French law, this study did not have to obtain the approval of a national ethics committee (the French data protection authority, CNIL (Commission nationale de l’informatique et des libertés)), as it is not legally considered to be research involving human beings and relies only on the collection of anonymous data. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
General dynamics of bronchiolitis epidemics for the 2017/18 to 2022/23 seasons in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, as identified using MEM indicators. A Transmissibility, B Impact on the hospital system, C Gravity
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Severity of the bronchiolitis epidemics for the 2017/18 to 2022/23 seasons in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, according to MEM indicators
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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