Long term monitoring and adaptive strategies: lessons from Hainan's malaria elimination and prevention efforts

Ziyan Liu¹, Oliver J Brady^{2

3}, Guangze Wang⁴, Yapin Li⁵, Nils Chr Stenseth^{6

7

8}, Christopher Dye⁹, Qiyong Liu^{4

10}, Huaiyu Tian¹¹

Affiliations

¹ Beijing Key Laboratory of Surveillance, Early Warning and Pathogen Research on Emerging Infectious Diseases, Beijing Research Center for Respiratory Infectious Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
² Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
³ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
⁴ Hainan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hainan Academy of Preventive Medicine, Haikou, China.
⁵ Central Theater Center for Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing, China.
⁶ The Centre for Pandemics and One-Health Research, Sustainable Health Unit, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
⁷ Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
⁸ Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
⁹ Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
¹⁰ National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, WHO Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management, Beijing, China.
¹¹ Beijing Key Laboratory of Surveillance, Early Warning and Pathogen Research on Emerging Infectious Diseases, Beijing Research Center for Respiratory Infectious Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China tianuhaiyu@gmail.com.

PMID: 40262817
PMCID: PMC12004407
DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2024-080657

Long term monitoring and adaptive strategies: lessons from Hainan's malaria elimination and prevention efforts

Ziyan Liu et al. BMJ. 2025.

. 2025 Apr 22:389:e080657.

doi: 10.1136/bmj-2024-080657.

Authors

Ziyan Liu¹, Oliver J Brady^{2

3}, Guangze Wang⁴, Yapin Li⁵, Nils Chr Stenseth^{6

7

8}, Christopher Dye⁹, Qiyong Liu^{4

10}, Huaiyu Tian¹¹

Affiliations

¹ Beijing Key Laboratory of Surveillance, Early Warning and Pathogen Research on Emerging Infectious Diseases, Beijing Research Center for Respiratory Infectious Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
² Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
³ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
⁴ Hainan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hainan Academy of Preventive Medicine, Haikou, China.
⁵ Central Theater Center for Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing, China.
⁶ The Centre for Pandemics and One-Health Research, Sustainable Health Unit, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
⁷ Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
⁸ Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
⁹ Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
¹⁰ National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, WHO Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management, Beijing, China.
¹¹ Beijing Key Laboratory of Surveillance, Early Warning and Pathogen Research on Emerging Infectious Diseases, Beijing Research Center for Respiratory Infectious Diseases, National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China tianuhaiyu@gmail.com.

PMID: 40262817
PMCID: PMC12004407
DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2024-080657

Abstract

Huaiyu Tian and colleagues argue that to improve sustainable malaria control and reduce the risk of disease resurgence, targeted interventions can be optimised for eliminating malaria in areas co-endemic for multiple Plasmodium species

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: We have read and understood The BMJ policy on the declaration of interests and declare that we have no conflicts of interest.

Figures

**Fig 1**
Malaria epidemics in Hainan between 1959 and elimination of endemic malaria in 2011. Top: lines correspond to changes in positive rates of *Plasmodium vivax*, *P malariae*, *P falciparum*, and mixed infection in sample of general population measured via annual blood examinations. Thick lines show blood positivity for malaria infection. Bottom: bars represent annual malaria incidence. Vertical dashed lines indicate timing of start of four main intervention strategies successfully introduced: indoor residual spraying (IRS), mass drug administration (MDA), targeted drug administration (TDA), and insecticide treated bed nets (ITNs), which were gradually introduced and became widely used in Hainan as malaria control measures

See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

1. Wang Z, Liu Y, Li Y, et al. . The relationship between rising temperatures and malaria incidence in Hainan, China, from 1984 to 2010: a longitudinal cohort study. Lancet Planet Health 2022;6:e350-8. 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00039-0 - DOI - PubMed
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Long term monitoring and adaptive strategies: lessons from Hainan's malaria elimination and prevention efforts

Affiliations

Long term monitoring and adaptive strategies: lessons from Hainan's malaria elimination and prevention efforts

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

Figures

References

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Full Text Sources