Predicting conversion to tailor patient expectations and perioperative pain management in ileocecal resection for Crohn's disease

Abstract

This study aims to identify risk factors of conversion to open surgery for patients undergoing minimally invasive surgery for their CD and to develop a predictive scoring system. Data from patients undergoing minimally invasive resection for their CD were collected in two European referral centers. The scoring system was developed from a logistic regression model including clinical and operative variables and its performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) area under the curve (AUC). The study included 309 patients including surgery for recurrence. Conversion to open surgery occurred in 21% (65/309) of patients. The logistic regression analysis identified male sex, BMI, preoperative evidence of multiple disease localizations and abscess or perforation, and previous surgery for CD as independent risk factors for conversion. The risk score values in the converted group were significantly higher compared to non-converted group (MD = - 20.40; 95%CI - 14.12 to - 26.69; p < 0.0001). In the ROC analysis, the score achieved an AUC of 0.80 (SE = 0.03; 95%CI 0.74-0.86; p < 0.0001). Male sex, BMI, preoperative evidence of multiple disease localizations and abscess or perforation, and previous surgery for CD were associated with an increased risk of conversion to open surgical approach in patients undergoing minimally invasive surgery and were used to develop a predictive score. The results of this study might be useful to tailor patient expectations and perioperative pain management in ileocecal resection for Crohn's disease.

Keywords: Conversion risk; Counselling; Crohn’s disease; Laparoscopy; Minimally invasive surgery; Open conversion; Pain management; Prediction score.