Global, regional, and national burden of disease analysis on paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction in adults aged 65 and over from 1990 to 2021, with projections for 2030: a Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 analysis

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the burden and trends of paralytic ileus and bowel obstruction in individuals aged ≥ 65 years, offering insights into prevention, treatment, and healthcare policy.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were used to analyze paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction by demographics, year, country/region, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). The statistical methods included Joinpoint regression, decomposition analysis, and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort modeling.

Results: In 2021, the global age-standardized incidence of paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction among the elderly was 643.45 cases per 100,000 individuals. The corresponding prevalence was 24.05 per 100,000 individuals, with disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 294.01 per 100,000 person-years and a mortality rate of 20.55 per 100,000 individuals. Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence of paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction in the elderly gradually increased, while age-standardized DALYs and mortality consistently declined. Despite similar trends observed across both genders, the disease burden increased with age and was more pronounced in males than in females. Furthermore, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence of these conditions increased with SDI, whereas mortality and DALYs decreased. By 2030, the incidence and prevalence are expected to continue increasing, whereas mortality and DALYs are expected to decrease.

Conclusions: Despite the consistent decrease in mortality and DALYs associated with paralytic ileus and bowel obstruction in the elderly population aged ≥ 65 years, their incidence and prevalence continue to increase annually. This underscores the importance of improving preventive measures, early screening, and treatment efforts to address this pressing public health challenge.

Keywords: Disease burden; Older adults; Paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction; Projections; Trend analysis.

Fig. 1

Disease burden of paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction in 204 countries and regions globally in 2021 (A. age-standardized incidence; B. Age-standardized prevalence; C. Age-standardized DALYs; D. Age-standardized mortality; E. EAPC of age-standardized incidence; F. EAPC of age-standardized prevalence; G. EAPC of age-standardized DALYs; H. EAPC of age-standardized mortality)

Fig. 2

Age-sex trends and Joinpoint regression analysis results of the disease burden of paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction (A. Incidence; B. Prevalence; C. DALYs; D. Deaths; E. Joinpoint analysis of Incidence; F. Joinpoint analysis of Prevalence; G. Joinpoint analysis of DALYs; H. Joinpoint analysis of Deaths)

Fig. 3

SDI analysis results (A. Incidence in 21 regions; B. Prevalence in 21 regions; C. DALYs in 21 regions; D. Mortality in 21 regions; E. Incidence in 204 countries; F. Prevalence in 204 countries; G. DALYs in 204 countries; H. Mortality in 204 countries; I. EAPC of incidence; J. EAPC of prevalence; K. EAPC of DALYs; L. EAPC of mortality)

Fig. 4

Decomposition analysis results (A. Incidence for global and five SDI regions; B. Prevalence for global and five SDI regions; C. DALYs for global and five SDI regions; D. Death for global and five SDI regions; E. Incidence for 21 GBD regions; F. Prevalence for 21 GBD regions; G. DALYs for 21 GBD regions; H. Death for 21 GBD regions)

Fig. 5

Predictive analysis results (A. age-standardized incidence; B. Age-standardized prevalence; C. Age-standardized DALYs; D. Age-standardized mortality; E. Actual values of incidence; F. Actual values of prevalence; G. Actual values of DALYs; H. Actual values of mortality)