Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2025 Jun;44(6):2119-2130.
doi: 10.1007/s10067-025-07459-z. Epub 2025 Apr 30.

Other musculoskeletal disorders in China, 1990-2021, and projections to 2050: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Suying Liu #  1 , Yingying Chen #  2 , Liuting Zeng  3 , Siyu Cao  4 , Juan Meng  2 , Fengchun Zhang  5
Affiliations

Other musculoskeletal disorders in China, 1990-2021, and projections to 2050: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Suying Liu et al. Clin Rheumatol. 2025 Jun.

Abstract

Objectives: Other musculoskeletal disorders showed a growing burden globally, but data specific to China remain sparse. This study aims to analyze the burden of other musculoskeletal disorders in China from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021.

Methods: Decomposition analysis, Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort, and Age-Period-Cohort models were utilized to investigate the key influencing factors and project future burden.

Results: In China, the prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 85.0 (72.4-99.4) million in 2021, with a 20% increase from 1990. The number of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) was 7.6 (5.2-10.6) million in 2021, indicating a 18.1% rise. Although age-standardized mortality rate remained stable, deaths number increased from 5,279.4 (4,289.9-6,724.3) to 9,166.9 (7,000.8-11,693.4). Females consistently showed higher rates than males, while China remained below the global average in prevalence, DALYs, and mortality. Population growth was the predominant contributor to the burden's increase in China, showing a different pattern from other BRICS countries. Prevalence is projected to triple by 2050, while DALYs and mortality may decline. For Age-Period-Cohort analysis of mortality, net drift was below zero. Age effects exhibited a significant increase after age group 70-75. Period effects played a negative role after 2004-2005. Cohort effects revealed a notable decrease among more recent generation.

Conclusions: The burden of other musculoskeletal disorders in China is increasing with sex, age, and regional differences. Future growth in prevalence is predicted for this category of disorders, highlighting the need for effective public health policies and tailored interventions. Key Points • The burden of other musculoskeletal disorders in China is substantial and has been growing from 1990 to 2021, with significant sex, age, and regional differences. • Population growth is the predominant contributor to the increased burden of other musculoskeletal disorders in China, showing a distinct pattern compared to other BRICS countries.

Keywords: Age-Period-Cohort; Burden; China; Decomposition analysis; Epidemiology; Other musculoskeletal disorders.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethics approval: The GBD data applied in this study are publicly available and de-identified, ensuring that ethical approval was not required for this study. Access to and utilization of the data were in strict accordance with the GBD study's guidelines and terms of use. Conflict of interest: The authors declare they have no conflicts of interest.

Similar articles

See all similar articles

References

    1. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 2018. 392(10159): p. 1789–1858.
    1. Liu S et al (2022) Global burden of musculoskeletal disorders and attributable factors in 204 countries and territories: a secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. BMJ Open 12(6):e062183 - DOI - PubMed - PMC
    1. Gill TK et al (2023) Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet Rheumatology 5(11):e670–e682 - DOI
    1. Safiri S et al (2021) Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders 1990–2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Rheumatology (Oxford) 60(2):855–865 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet, 2024. 403(10440): p. 2133–2161.

LinkOut - more resources