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. 2025 Apr 30;13(1):459.
doi: 10.1186/s40359-025-02766-1.

A longitudinal replication study testing migration from video game loot boxes to gambling in British Columbia, Canada

Lucas Palmer  1 , Gabriel A Brooks  1 , Luke Clark  2   3
Affiliations

A longitudinal replication study testing migration from video game loot boxes to gambling in British Columbia, Canada

Lucas Palmer et al. BMC Psychol. .

Abstract

Background: Loot boxes are randomized reward mechanics in modern video games that share features with conventional gambling products. Research studies have begun to test longitudinal patterns ("migration") from engagement with loot boxes to gambling behavior. This study investigated such effects at a 6-month follow-up in an online sample of young adults that play video games (aged 19-25) from British Columbia, Canada.

Methods: Participants were stratified into two subgroups at their baseline assessment: 83 reported they did not currently gamble and 43 reported they currently gamble, after cleaning. At baseline, participants provided responses to the Risky Loot Box Index (RLI) and estimates of their past year spending on both randomized (i.e., loot boxes) and non-randomized ("direct purchase") microtransactions. Microtransaction spending and RLI scores at baseline were tested as predictors of self-identified gambling initiation and spend at follow-up. We tested a set of frequentist regressions and a corresponding set of Bayesian regressions.

Results: At baseline, participants who reported gambling showed higher levels of engagement with both randomized and non-randomized microtransactions. Among non-gambling participants at baseline, loot box spending and RLI predicted gambling initiation at the follow-up, in a Bayesian logistic regression with informed priors. Loot box spending and RLI at baseline predicted gambling expenditure at follow-up, in both the frequentist and Bayesian linear regressions. Spending on direct purchase microtransactions did not predict gambling initiation in either set of models when controlling for loot box spending, underscoring the role of randomized rewards.

Conclusions: These data provide further prospective evidence for gambling 'migration' in a sample recruited in Western Canada, indicating that young adults who spend money on loot boxes are at elevated risk for real-money gambling.

Keywords: Bayesian; Behavioral addiction; Gambling behavior; Longitudinal; Loot boxes; Randomized rewards; Replication.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: We confirm that this study was conducted in accordance with the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki. Participants provided informed consent to participate prior to each survey. The study was conducted with approval from the Behavioural Research Ethics Board at the University of British Columbia (H20 - 02830). Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: LP holds the Graduate Fellowship in Gambling Research (2023–2024), a fellowship supported by the BCLC and adjudicated by the UBC Faculty of Arts. GB has received a speaker honoraria from the British Columbia Lottery Corporation (BCLC). LC is the Director of the Centre for Gambling Research at UBC, which is supported by funding from the Province of British Columbia and the British Columbia Lottery Corporation (BCLC), a Canadian Crown Corporation. The Province of BC government and the BCLC had no role in the preparation of this manuscript, and impose no constraints on publishing. LC holds a Discovery Award from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (Canada). LC has received remuneration from the International Center for Responsible Gaming (travel; speaker honoraria; academic services), the Institut fur Glucksspiel und Gesellschaft (Germany; travel; speaker honoraria), GambleAware (UK; academic services), Gambling Research Australia (academic services), Alberta Gambling Research Institute (Canada; travel; academic services), German Foundation for Gambling Research (advisory board; travel). He has been remunerated for legal consultancy by the BCLC. He has not received any further direct or indirect payments from the gambling industry or groups substantially funded by gambling. LC receives an honorarium for his role as Co-Editor-in-Chief for International Gambling Studies from Taylor & Francis, and he has received royalties from Cambridge Cognition Ltd. relating to neurocognitive testing.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Linear regressions predicting gambling spend at follow-up. Note: Spending variables were log base 2 + 1 transformed to reduce positive skew. RLI scores were standardized. A shows the relationship between RLI scores and gambling spend at follow-up. B and C show the linear regression line for the effect of loot box and DPM spending on gambling spend at follow-up without controlling for either variable. D plots the standardized residual of loot box spending after regressing on DPM spending allowing for the visualization of the effect of DPMs when controlling for loot box spending
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Mean predicted probability of migration from Bayesian logistic regression for DPM and loot box spending. Note: 98.75% CIs. Percentages display the mean predicted probability output from the Bayesian logistic regression of gambling migration based upon participants DPM spend while controlling for loot box expenditure, and participants loot box spend while controlling for DPM expenditure
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