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. 1985;21(3):347-61.
doi: 10.1007/BF00276232.

Multiple stable recurrent outbreaks and predictability in seasonally forced nonlinear epidemic models

I B Schwartz

Multiple stable recurrent outbreaks and predictability in seasonally forced nonlinear epidemic models

I B Schwartz. J Math Biol. 1985.

Abstract

A seasonally forced nonlinear SEIR epidemic model is used to simulate small and large amplitude periodic outbreaks. The model is shown to exhibit bistable behavior for a fixed set of parameters. Basins of attraction for each recurrent outbreak are computed, and it is shown that the basins of two coexisting stable outbreaks are intertwined in a complicated manner. The effect of such a basin structure is shown to result in an obstruction in predicting asymptotically the type of outbreak given an uncertainty in the initial population of susceptibles and infectives.

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