ECCO Topical Review on Predictive Models on Inflammatory Bowel Disease Disease Course and Treatment Response

Abstract

Background and aims: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) poses a clinical challenge due to its variable progression and treatment response. Despite the development of predictive models, their clinical application remains limited due to validation and methodological inconsistencies. The current topical review examines existing predictive models, assesses their relevance, and discusses the barriers to their clinical implementation.

Methods: An expert panel formed by European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation, including gastroenterologists, surgeons, and clinical epidemiologists, reviewed predictive models on IBD disease course and treatment response. Delphi methodology was applied to develop practice position statements. A practice position was set when at least 80% of participants reached agreement on a recommendation.

Results: Fourteen practice positions and 2 perspective points were developed, highlighting factors included in models predicting IBD disease course and treatment response identified in the literature and barriers to clinical implementation. The appropriate methodological approaches for model development and validation have been defined, while methodological barriers to tackle have been identified. Perspectives on the inclusion of relevant biomarkers, and flexible study design have been outlined.

Conclusions: This topical review offers practice recommendations and guidance for future predictive models on IBD disease course and treatment response including their implementation in clinical practice.

Keywords: Prediction; Predictive models; disease course; inflammatory bowel disease; treatment response.