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Randomized Controlled Trial
. 2025 Aug;27(8):4118-4125.
doi: 10.1111/dom.16439. Epub 2025 May 6.

Predicting 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with overweight or obesity treated with Tirzepatide: Post hoc analysis of SURMOUNT-CN trial

Lin Zhao  1 , Feng Tao  2 , Zhifeng Cheng  3 , Yibing Lu  4 , Ming Liu  5 , Hong Chen  6 , Min Zhang  7 , Yang Yang  8 , Xiang Song  8 , Yuzi Sun  8 , Xiao Ma  8 , Si Si  8 , Hanxi Zhang  8 , Xiaoying Li  1
Affiliations
Randomized Controlled Trial

Predicting 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with overweight or obesity treated with Tirzepatide: Post hoc analysis of SURMOUNT-CN trial

Lin Zhao et al. Diabetes Obes Metab. 2025 Aug.

Abstract

Aim: To assess the association of tirzepatide use with a 10-year predicted risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) among Chinese participants with obesity or overweight from the SURMOUNT-CN trial.

Materials and methods: In this post hoc analysis, the QDiabetes-2018 risk engine was used to calculate the 10-year predicted T2D risk at baseline, week 24 and week 52 among SURMOUNT-CN participants randomized to receive tirzepatide 10 mg, 15 mg or placebo. A mixed model for repeated measures was used to compare mean predicted risk changes from baseline to weeks 24 and 52 between tirzepatide and placebo. Subgroup analyses were conducted by baseline body weight mass index (BMI) status and baseline prediabetes status.

Results: Demographic and baseline clinical characteristics were similar among tirzepatide10 mg (n = 59), 15 mg (n = 53) and placebo (n = 57). From baseline to week 52, the least square (LS) mean predicted T2D risk changed from 5.3% to 1.2% for tirzepatide 10 mg, from 4.9% to 1.0% for tirzepatide 15 mg and from 5.8% to 4.5% for placebo. The difference in LS mean risk change from baseline to week 52 was significant between both tirzepatide 10 mg (-3.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -4.2%, -2.2%) and 15 mg (-3.4%, 95% CI: -4.4%, -2.4%) and placebo. Significantly greater predicted risk reductions for tirzepatide than placebo were observed in all subgroups.

Conclusion: Tirzepatide was associated with significantly reduced predicted 10-year risk of T2D among SURMOUNT-CN participants with obesity or overweight, irrespective of baseline BMI and prediabetes status.

Keywords: obesity; prediabetes; risk prediction; tirzepatide; type 2 diabetes.

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