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. 2025 May 13;15(1):16655.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-01218-5.

Constructing a prediction model for acute pancreatitis severity based on liquid neural network

Jie Cao #  1 , Shike Long #  2 , Huan Liu  1 , Fu'an Chen  1 , Shiwei Liang  1 , Haicheng Fang  1 , Ying Liu  3   4
Affiliations

Constructing a prediction model for acute pancreatitis severity based on liquid neural network

Jie Cao et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common disease, and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has a high morbidity and mortality rate. Early recognition of SAP is crucial for prognosis. This study aimed to develop a novel liquid neural network (LNN) model for predicting SAP. This study retrospectively analyzed the data of AP patients admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guilin Medical University between January 2020 and June 2024. Data imbalance was dealt with by data preprocessing and using the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE). A new feature selection method was designed to optimize model performance. Logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DCT), random forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and LNN models were built. The model's performance was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and other statistical metrics. In addition, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was used to interpret the prediction results of the LNN model. The LNN model performed best in predicting AP severity, with an AUC value of 0.9659 and accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and specificity higher than 0.90. SHAP analysis revealed key predictors, such as calcium level, amylase activity, and percentage of basophils, which were strongly associated with AP severity. As an emerging machine learning tool, the LNN model has demonstrated excellent performance and potential in AP severity prediction. The results of this study support the idea that LNN models can be applied to early severity assessment of AP patients in a clinical setting, which can help optimize treatment plans and improve patient prognosis.

Keywords: Liquid neural network; Machine learning; Predictive models; Severe acute pancreatitis.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. Ethics approval and consent to participate: Studies involving human participants underwent a review and approval process by the Ethics Committee of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guilin Medical University. Patients participating in the study signed an informed consent form through themselves and/or their legal guardians. The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guilin Medical University (NO.ZLXM-2024013).

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
LNN schematic diagram.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The flow chart of this study.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Correlation analysis heatmap.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Plot of AUC values versus number of features under the five models. (A) LR model; (B) DCT model; (C) RF model; (D) XGBoost model; (E) LNN model.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Comparison of AUC values before and after feature selection under five models. (A) LR model; (B) DCT model; (C) RF model; (D) XGBoost model; (E) LNN model; (F) Comparison bar chart.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Comparison of AUC values before and after SMOTE oversampling under five models. (A) LR model; (B) DCT model; (C) RF model; (D) XGBoost model; (E) LNN model; (F) Comparison bar chart.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Loss and accuracy variation plots for training LNN models. (A) Loss variation chart; (B) Accuracy change chart.
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
Comparative ROC charts for the five models.
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
Comparison of AUC values for three models, LNN, CNN, and LSTM, with different training set proportions. (A) 5% training set; (B) 70% training set.
Fig. 10
Fig. 10
LNN-based SHAP analysis graph.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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