A Global Review of the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Farmers' Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

Climate change and variability-marked by rising temperatures, altered precipitation, and increased extreme weather-have significant impacts on agriculture, especially in Ethiopia, where farming is the primary livelihood source. In Sub-Saharan Africa, staple crop yields are projected to decline by 10%-20% by 2050 under current climate trends, threatening food security and rural economies. In Ethiopia, maize yields may decrease by around 15% by 2050 due to temperature increases and erratic rainfall. These challenges are not unique to Ethiopia; other climate-sensitive regions like South Asia and Latin America face similar risks. For instance, rice and wheat production in South Asia could decline by 10%-15% by mid-century due to heat stress and changing monsoon patterns, affecting millions of smallholder farmers. This review systematically examined literature from 2000 to 2024, focusing on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in Ethiopia and comparable regions. The increasing frequency of droughts and heatwaves in East Africa has worsened crop failures, with wheat yields declining by up to 25% in certain areas over recent decades. Climate variability-characterized by rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall-disrupts growing seasons and reduces yields, exacerbating food insecurity. In Ethiopia, climate-induced reductions in crop output have led to an estimated 5%-10% decline in annual agricultural GDP. The heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture, combined with limited adaptive capacity and socio-economic vulnerability, intensifies these impacts, resulting in food shortages and economic strain. Beyond Africa, regions dependent on monsoon systems, particularly in South Asia, are also experiencing declining crop productivity. Projected climate scenarios suggest that by 2080, crop production in drought-prone areas across Africa and South Asia could decrease by up to 25% due to rising temperatures and altered rainfall. These projections highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient agricultural practices and effective adaptation strategies.

Keywords: adaptation strategies; climate change; climate variability; crop yield; impacts; productivity.

FIGURE 1

The impact of climate change on agriculture. Cited by Ullah et al. (2021).

FIGURE 2

Schematic representation of adaptation strategies of agriculture to climate change in Mediterranean‐climate regions (MCRs) cited from Del Pozo et al. (2019).