Predicting the future impact of climate change on the distribution of species in Egypt's mediterranean ecosystems

Abstract

As climate change accelerates, it may significantly alter species distributions and endanger many species. The use of species distribution modeling (SDM) has become increasingly vital for assessing the likely effects of climatic changes on biodiversity. This approach is especially relevant as our understanding of environmental shifts and their ecological implications deepens. SDMs are frequently employed to forecast future shifts in species' geographic ranges, estimate extinction risks, evaluate the effectiveness of existing conservation areas, and prioritize conservation efforts. The urgency of these assessments is highlighted by the fact that the Mediterranean area is heating up 20% quicker than the universal average. Given that species have varying ecological tolerances and attributes, their biological responses to environmental changes are likely to differ significantly. This study aimed to assess the potential future distribution of three native Mediterranean species- Thymelaea hirsuta (L.) Endl., Ononis vaginalis Vahl, and Limoniastrum monopetalum (L.) Boiss.-under two GCMs of HadGEM3-GC31-LL and IPSL-CM6A-LR for the periods of 2060s and 2080s and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), comparing the use of MaxEnt and ensemble modelling techniques in predicting the impact of future climatic changes on these species' distribution. The results indicated that there are high similarities and agreement between MaxEnt and the ensemble models' outputs. The two modelling techniques exhibited excellent fits and performance. The distribution range of T. hirsuta and O. vaginalis will expand and migrate to the northwest direction of the Mediterranean coast of Egypt, while L. monopetalum will contract. The insights gained from species distribution modeling could guide future conservation efforts and promote the sustainable use of the studied species in the arid coastal environments of the Mediterranean region. Clinical trial number Not applicable.

Keywords: Biodiversity; Coastal deserts; Distribution models; Ensemble model; Habitat loss; MaxEnt.

Fig. 1

The surveyed study area illustrating the locations of the collected occurrence records of the investigated species (a) Thymelaea hirsuta, (b) Ononis vaginalis and (c) Limoniastrum monopetalum, the study area covers 175,018 km² of total area of Egypt

Fig. 2

Predicted distribution of Thymelaea hirsuta by MaxEnt and Ensemble model based on two warming scenarios, SSP1-2.6 (A, B, E, F, I, J, M & N) and SSP5-8.5 (C, D, G, H, K, L, O & P) of the HadGEM3-GC31-LL and the IPSL-CM6A-LR general climate model by the period 2041–2060 (A, B, C, D, I, J, K & L) and 2061–2080 (E, F, G, H, M, N, O & P)

Fig. 3

Predicted distribution of Ononis vaginalis by MaxEnt and Ensemble model based on two warming scenarios, SSP1-2.6 (A, B, E, F, I, J, M & N) and SSP5-8.5 (C, D, G, H, K, L, O & P) of the HadGEM3-GC31-LL and the IPSL-CM6A-LR general climate model by the period 2041–2060 (A, B, C, D, I, J, K & L) and 2061–2080 (E, F, G, H, M, N, O & P)

Fig. 4

Predicted distribution of Limoniastrum monopetalum by MaxEnt and Ensemble model based on two warming scenarios, SSP1-2.6 (A, B, E, F, I, J, M & N) and SSP5-8.5 (C, D, G, H, K, L, O & P) of the HadGEM3-GC31-LL and the IPSL-CM6A-LR general climate model by the period 2041–2060 (A, B, C, D, I, J, K & L) and 2061–2080 (E, F, G, H, M, N, O & P)

Fig. 5

Predicted range expansion/contraction of Thymelaea hirsuta under the investigated warming scenarios resulting from the MaxEnt and Ensemble models. The change in distribution between current and future climate of the HadGEM3-GC31-LL and the IPSL-CM6A-LR general climate model under SSP1-2.6 (A, B, E, F, I, J, M and N) and SSP5-8.5 (C, D, G, H, K, L, O and P) scenarios by the period 2041–2060 and 2061–2080

Fig. 6

Predicted range expansion/contraction of Ononis vaginalis under the investigated warming scenarios resulting from the MaxEnt and Ensemble models. The change in distribution between current and future climate of the HadGEM3-GC31-LL and the IPSL-CM6A-LR general climate model under SSP1-2.6 (A, B, E, F, I, J, M and N) and SSP5-8.5 (C, D, G, H, K, L, O and P) scenarios by the period 2041–2060 and 2061–2080

Fig. 7

Predicted range expansion/contraction of Limoniastrum monopetalum under the investigated warming scenarios resulting from the MaxEnt and Ensemble models. The change in distribution between current and future climate of the HadGEM3-GC31-LL and the IPSL-CM6A-LR general climate model under SSP1-2.6 (A, B, E, F, I, J, M and N) and SSP5-8.5 (C, D, G, H, K, L, O and P) scenarios by the period 2041–2060 and 2061–2080

Fig. 8

Percentage of the studied species range persistence, expansion, and contraction as predicted by MaxEnt ((a), (c) and (e)) and ensemble model ((b), (d) and (f)) under the scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 based of the HadGEM3-GC31-LL and IPSLCM6A-LR general climate model during the period 2041–2060 and 2060–2080