Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2025 May 1:13:1577265.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1577265. eCollection 2025.

Global burden and future projections of geriatric gout (1990-2021): a comprehensive analysis and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort modeling

Jiqing Wang #  1 , Yonghui Zhao #  1 , Boya Zhao  2 , Yingang Zhang  1
Affiliations

Global burden and future projections of geriatric gout (1990-2021): a comprehensive analysis and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort modeling

Jiqing Wang et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Introduction: Gout is increasingly recognized as a major chronic condition among older adults, contributing significantly to global disease burden, healthcare costs, and disability.

Methods: This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, covering 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2021. We evaluated age-standardized incidence rates, prevalence, and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) of gout among individuals aged 60 years and older. Inequality and frontier analyses were conducted to explore disparities, and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) models were applied for future trend projections up to 2036.

Results: All indicators-incidence, prevalence, and YLDs-showed a steady increase across the study period, with particularly rapid growth observed in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions and among older women. Although the burden was concentrated in high SDI countries, increasing trends were also evident in low SDI areas. Significant heterogeneity was found among countries with similar SDI levels.

Discussion: The projected rise in gout burden through 2036 underscores the urgent need for targeted public health strategies. Disparities across SDI groups suggest that medical infrastructure, prevention programs, and cultural contexts play critical roles in disease control. Comprehensive interventions are essential to manage this growing challenge, especially among high-risk older populations.

Keywords: BAPC analysis; GBD; YLDs rate; gout; older adult population.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Global proportions of incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs numbers for older adult gout (A), and age-standardized trends over time (B). YLDs, years lived with disability.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Joinpoint regression analysis of older adult gout compared to other age groups with incidence from 1990 to 2019. OA, osteoarthritis; SDI, socio-demographic index; YLDs, years lived with disability.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Heatmap of gout YLDs distribution among individuals aged 60 and above in 204 countries and regions globally for the years 1990 and 2021. (A) Distribution in 1990. (B) Distribution in 2021.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Heatmap of EAPC distribution of gout YLDs among individuals aged 60 and above in 204 countries and regions globally from 1990 to 2021.
Figure 5
Figure 5
(A–C) Average annual percentage change in age-standardized rates of older adult gout globally and by SDI category from 1990 to 2021. SDI, socio-demographic index; YLDs, years lived with disability.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Trend decomposition analysis of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for older adult gout from 1990 to 2021. YLDs, years lived with disability.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

References

    1. Dalbeth N, Merriman TR, Stamp LK. Gout. Lancet. (2016) 388:2039–52. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00346-9, PMID: - DOI - PubMed
    1. Dehlin M, Jacobsson L, Roddy E. Global epidemiology of gout: prevalence, incidence, treatment patterns and risk factors. Nat Rev Rheumatol. (2020) 16:380–90. doi: 10.1016/S2665-9913(24)00117-6, PMID: - DOI - PubMed
    1. GBD 2021 Gout Collaborators . Global, regional, and national burden of gout, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021. Lancet Rheumatol. (2024) 6:e507–17. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Johnson RJ, Mandell BF, Schlesinger N, Mount DB, Botson JK, Abdellatif AA, et al. . Controversies and practical management of patients with gout and chronic kidney disease. Kidney Int. (2024) 106:573–82. doi: 10.1016/j.kint.2024.05.033, PMID: - DOI - PubMed
    1. Yanai H, Adachi H, Hakoshima M, Katsuyama H. Molecular biological and clinical understanding of the pathophysiology and treatments of hyperuricemia and its association with metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. Int J Mol Sci. (2021) 22:9221. doi: 10.3390/ijms22179221, PMID: - DOI - PMC - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources