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. 2025 Apr 16;12(1):1-6.
doi: 10.5152/eurjrheum.2025.24048.

Can the Early Warning Score (ANDC) Predict Tocilizumab Efficacy in Patients with COVID-19 Cytokine Storm?

Özlem Kılıç  1 , Duygu Tecer  1 , Mehmet Nur Kaya  2 , Muhammet Çınar  1 , Sedat Yılmaz  1
Affiliations

Can the Early Warning Score (ANDC) Predict Tocilizumab Efficacy in Patients with COVID-19 Cytokine Storm?

Özlem Kılıç et al. Eur J Rheumatol. .

Abstract

Background: The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of the Early Warning Score [ANDC (age (A), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR (N)), D-dimer (D), and CRP (C)] in predicting the treatment response in patients receiving tocilizumab for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related cytokine storm.

Methods: A retrospective review of medical records was conducted for patients treated with tocili- zumab for a cytokine storm related to COVID-19 between April 1, 2020, and April 1, 2021. Patient demographics, clinical characteristics, and laboratory parameters within 24 hours before tocilizumab were recorded. 1.14 × (age - 20) (years) + 1.63 × NLR + 5.00 × D-dimer (mg/L) + 0.14 × C-reactive protein (CRP) (mg/L) was used as the formula for the ANDC score. The study population was divided into 2 groups: those who died within 28 days of receiving tocilizumab and those who recovered. A comparative analysis was conducted.

Results: Within 28 days of tocilizumab treatment, 59 (35.32%) patients died. In comparison with living patients, deceased patients exhibited considerably higher levels of interleukin (IL)-6, lactate dehydro- genase (LDH), ANDC score, and CRP (P < .05). Lactate dehydrogenase was an independent predictor of response to tocilizumab treatment (P < .001) in a multivariate logistic regression analysis. In patients who did not receive steroid therapy before tocilizumab treatment, the ANDC score had the highest area under the curve (AUC). The optimal cut-off value was determined to be 92.56, with a sensitivity of 91.67% and a specificity of 60.61% (P < .001). In patients receiving steroids before tocilizumab, LDH had the highest AUC. The optimal cut-off value was 484.5 U/L (P < .001).

Conclusion: Lactate dehydrogenase was identified as an independent predictor of response to tocili- zumab treatment. The ANDC score showed the highest AUC value in steroid-naïve patients before tocilizumab, whereas LDH showed the highest AUC value in patients receiving steroids before tocili- zumab. Both the ANDC score and LDH levels show potential as valuable tools to guide treatment decisions.

Keywords: ANDC score; Coronavirus-2019; interleukin-6; lactate dehydrogenase; tocilizumab.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Interests: The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Receiver operating characteristic curve of steroid non-received patients before tocilizumab (125 × 94 mm (300 × 300 DPI)).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Receiver operating characteristic curve of steroid received patients before tocilizumab (119 × 97 mm (300 × 300 DPI)).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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