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. 2025 Jun 17;6(6):102137.
doi: 10.1016/j.xcrm.2025.102137. Epub 2025 May 15.

Disparities, trends, and projections of cancer mortality burden related to high body mass index in China from 2005 to 2030

Yixin Tian  1 , Xue Cao  1 , Chenye Chang  1 , Xin Wang  1 , Congyi Zheng  1 , Xuyan Pei  1 , Xue Yu  1 , Yujie Zhang  1 , Nuerguli Tuerdi  1 , Zhenping Zhao  2 , Limin Wang  2 , Peng Yin  2 , Yuehui Fang  3 , Mei Zhang  2 , Yuna He  3 , Maigeng Zhou  2 , Zengwu Wang  4
Affiliations

Disparities, trends, and projections of cancer mortality burden related to high body mass index in China from 2005 to 2030

Yixin Tian et al. Cell Rep Med. .

Abstract

High body mass index (BMI), defined as a BMI greater than or equal to 20-25 kg/m2, is considered a rapid-increased risk factor for cancer. Based on comparative risk assessment framework, we elaborate the mortality burden of cancers attributable to high BMI in China. In 2018, we estimated that there were 85.19 thousand cancer-related deaths and 2,220.01 thousand cancer-related years of life lost (YLLs) attributable to high BMI in China. Of these, 62.14 thousand deaths and 1,698.81 thousand YLLs were from males. With higher socioeconomic levels, the burden generally increases initially and then decreases. By 2030, the projected age-standardized mortality rate attributable to high BMI in China will be 6.67 per 100,000 people, increased by 3.25% from that in 2005. In summary, the swift increase and substantial disparities in the cancer burden attributable to high BMI underscore the urgent need for evidence-based policies and interventions in China.

Keywords: age-standardized mortality rate; cancer; death; disease burden; obesity; prediction; year of life lost.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

None
Graphical abstract
Figure 1
Figure 1
Changes in cancer mortality attributable to high body mass index from 2005 to 2018 by cancer type in China, according to the contributions of population growth, population aging, risk-deleted mortality rate, and high BMI exposure The black dots indicate overall change in mortality. (A) Female; (B) Male. See also Figure S1. Data are represented as mean.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Deaths attributable to high body mass index, by cancer and its types, age, and gender groups, 2018 Data are represented as mean and their 95% UI.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Age-standardized mortality rate for cancer and its three leading types attributable to high body mass index in 2018 The small circles represent outliers. Gray color means no data were available in this study. (A) Total cancer for male; (B) total cancer for female; (C) liver cancer for male; (D) liver cancer for female; (E) esophageal cancer for male; (F) esophageal cancer for female; (G) colon and rectum cancer for male; (H) colon and rectum cancer for female. See also Figures S2–S4 and Table S1. The age-standardized mortality rate for cancer and its subtypes by gender and province in China in 2018, related to Figure 3, Table S2. Deaths, age-standardized mortality rates, its percentage change, and EAPC by province in China, 2005–2018, related to Figure 3, Table S3. The age-standardized mortality rate for cancer and its subtypes by gender and province in China in 2005. related to Figure 3.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Cancers ranked by age-standardized mortality rate attributable to high body mass index in provinces of China in 2018 (A) Male; (B) female. See also Figure S5.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Ranks in age-standardized mortality rates for cancer types attributable to high body mass index in China for males and females, 2005–2030 (A) Male; (B) female. Data are represented as mean and their 95% UI.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Age-standardized mortality rates for cancer attributable to high body mass index by gender from 2005 to 2018 and projections to 2030 (A) Male; (B) female. Data are represented as mean and their 95% UI. See also Figure S6 and Table S4.
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