Universal "Test and Treat" for HIV Had Little Effect on Outcomes, but Missed Clinic Visits Threaten Success of Botswana's National Antiretroviral Treatment Program

Abstract

In 2016, Botswana changed the policy to institute universal "test and treat" (UTT) in people with human immunodeficiency virus or HIV (PWH). It is unclear whether these policy changes have yielded any clinical benefits or harms. We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of PWH aged ≥18 years to compare patient outcomes in individuals who received antiretroviral treatment (ART) under (1) the introduction of UTT and (2) rapid versus delayed ART start, at two clinics in Gaborone, Botswana, between 2014 and 2020. Multivariate logistic regression and propensity score models were used to control for potential confounding and selection bias. Of the 2008 participants who had a complete plasma HIV RNA at 1 year following ART initiation, 59 (2.9%) experienced virologic failure, and 665 (33.1%) were lost to follow-up (LTFU). Higher LTFU was recorded in UTT than in delayed ART period (43% vs 31%, p < 0.001); the same trend was upheld on further examination treating all LTFU as treatment failure (47% vs 37%, p < 0.001). In adjusted models, neither the UTT policy: odds ratio (OR) 1.91 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90, 3.56] nor rapid ART start: OR 1.31 (95% CI: 0.75, 2.34) was associated with viral failure. UTT was not associated with LTFU: OR 1.04, 95% CI (0.75, 1.45). Missed clinic visits were associated with viral failure regardless of policy period: OR 1.17 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.31) or rapid start: OR 1.20 (95% CI: 1.07,1.35). Neither UTT policy nor rapid ART start was associated with any one of the composite unfavorable outcomes. However, missing clinic visits was an independent risk factor for unfavorable outcomes.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy; loss to follow-up; rapid ART; universal test and treat; virologic failure.