Global, regional and national burden of injuries caused by fire, heat, and hot substances from 1990 to 2021

Abstract

Background: Burn injuries, which are caused by fire, heat, and hot substances, are considered a chronic condition due to their long-term effects on the health of affected individuals. Moreover, burn injuries constitute a significant public health issue that cannot be overlooked within the global healthcare system.

Materials and methods: This study comprehensively analyzed the burden of burn injuries, focusing on variations by Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) levels and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions, sex-based disparities, Frontier analysis, and future trend forecasting using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model.

Results: Compared to 1990, the global burden of burn injuries decreased in most regions worldwide in 2021. The majority of regions showed a negative Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC), indicating a continuous decline in Age-Standardized Rate (ASR) annually. And the ASR decreased with the increasing SDI. Moreover, the forecasted trend from 2021 to 2030, indicates a continued decline with a well-fitted projection model.

Conclusions: Despite the observed and projected decline in global ASR of burn, the burden of burn remains a significant concern that should not be underestimated.

Fig 1. Graph of successive trends in the burden of injury caused by fire, heat and hot substances between 1990 and 2021.

A-F represent the changes in the burden of Prevalence, Death, Incidence, Disability-Adjusted Life Years, Years of Life Lost and Years Lived with Disability of burn, respectively.

Fig 2. Age-Standardized Rate of injuries caused by fire, heat and hot substances in 22 GBD regions with varying Social-Demographic Index globally from 1990 to 2021.

A. is for the Age-Standardized Rate of Incidence; B. is for the Age-Standardized Rate of Prevalence; C. is for the Age-Standardized Rate of Death; D. is for the Age-Standardized Rate of Disability-Adjusted Life Years. (E) The Age-Standardized Rate of Years of Life Lost; F. is for the Age-Standardized Rate of Years Lived with Disability.

Fig 3. Frontier analysis of injuries’ burden caused by fire, heat, and hot substances from 1990 to 2021.

Frontier analysis is depicted with a black solid line representing the boundary, and points representing countries or regions. The trends of Social-Demographic Index and Age-Standardized Rate for each country and region are presented in a gradient of blue. And the 15 countries with the largest effective differences are marked in black font. Countries with lower SDI (<0.5) and lower EF are marked in blue font. Countries or regions with higher SDI (>0.8) and higher EF are marked in red font. Additionally, from 1990 to 2021, red points indicate an increase in the Age-Standardized Rate of burn; blue points indicate a decrease in the Age-Standardized Rate of burn. A. - F. represent the burden changes of burn Incidence, Prevalence, Death, Disability-Adjusted Life Years, Years of Life Lost, and Years Lived with Disability in each country or region from 1990 to 2021, as well as the distance to the “Frontier.” G. - L. represent the burden of burn Incidence, Prevalence, Death, Disability-Adjusted Life Years, Years of Life Lost, and Years Lived with Disability in each country or region in 2021, as well as the distance to the “Frontier.”.

Fig 4. Predictions of Age-Standardized Rate of burden caused by fire, heat and hot substances for different sexes in 2030 based on the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model.

A. and B. is for the prediction of the male and female Age-Standardized Disability-Adjusted Life Years Rate respectively; B. is for the prediction of the female Age-Standardized Disability-Adjusted Life Years Rate; C. and D. is for the prediction of male and female Age-Standardized Prevalence Rate; E. and F. is for the prediction of male and female Age-Standardized Death Rate.