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. 2025 Apr 25:14:103336.
doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2025.103336. eCollection 2025 Jun.

Method for modelling the number of HIV and AIDS cases using least square spline Biresponse nonparametric negative binomial regression

Arip Ramadan  1   2 , Nur Chamidah  3   4 , I Nyoman Budiantara  5 , Budi Lestari  6 , Dursun Aydin  7   8
Affiliations

Method for modelling the number of HIV and AIDS cases using least square spline Biresponse nonparametric negative binomial regression

Arip Ramadan et al. MethodsX. .

Abstract

We propose a new statistical modeling method to analyze functional relationship between predictor variables and correlated response variables, and apply it for modeling the number of HIV and AIDS cases influenced by early-age marriages and contraceptive users. The proposed method is LS-Spline BNNBR that is a Biresponse Nonparametric Negative Binomial Regression (BNNBR) based on least squares spline (LS-Spline). To validate the proposed method, we compare it with classical method, namely Ordinary Least Square Biresponse Parametric Negative Binomial Regression (OLS-BPNBR). The results show that the LS-Spline BNNBR method provided deviance value of 7.542334 which is smaller than that of OLS-BPNBR method, namely 7.993935. Thus, the proposed method has better prediction fit than the classical method.•This study discusses new statistical modeling method for the number of HIV and AIDS cases influenced by early-age marriages and contraceptive users where the response variables are correlated with each other.•The model estimation results show that the number of HIV and AIDS cases in Indonesia will decrease if the early-age marriages percentage increases and the contraceptive users percentage decreases.•The results are useful to provide a scientific basis for making policies to control the number of HIV and AIDS cases in Indonesia.

Keywords: AIDS; BLSSNNBR model; Contraceptive user; Early-age marriage; HIV; LS-Spline BNNBR; Least square spline.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Image, graphical abstract
Graphical abstract
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Scatterplot of the Number of Cases for HIV versus AIDS.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Scatter-plot Early-Age Marriage and Contraceptive Users versus the Number Cases of HIV.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Scatter-plot Early-Age Marriage and Contraceptive Users versus the Number Cases of AIDS.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Plots of actual values (plaid), estimation values of BPNBR (red) and BNNBR (blue) for HIV (left) and AIDS (right).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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